GOP faces struggle to recapture House in 2010





"A lack of competitive open-seat House races in 2010 could complicate Republican efforts to fully maximize a favorable national environment and make large seat gains after back-to-back elections where the political winds were blowing in the opposite direction," Roll Call reports.

"So far, 18 Members have announced they are not seeking re-election in 2010 and are running for other office instead -- but only six of those races are currently considered competitive. No Member has yet announced an outright retirement, which is unusual; at this point in the 2008 cycle, 14 Members had announced their retirement and five others were running for Senate."

The Fix: "Compare those numbers to 1994 when 40 of the 52 seats Democrats lost were in open seat races and you begin to see why the comparison between the two elections is somewhat ill-fitting. Watch to see how many more House Democrats decide to bail on a re-election race next November between now and January 2010; if that number stays below 15 or 20, Democrats have to feel good about holding the House in 2011."


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