Martin Kramer is Senior Fellow at the Shalem Center in Jerusalem, and President-designate of Shalem College (in formation). He is also the Wexler-Fromer Fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Did I predict the “Arab Spring”?

The short answer is “no.” I didn’t foresee that the self-immolation of a Tunisian fruit vendor would set off a wave of popular unrest that would bring down the rulers of Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt, plunge Syria deep into civil conflict, and roil Bahrain.

The long answer is a bit more interesting....