HNN Poll: What Factors Are Likely to Shape the Election of 2004?


KEY 1 (Party Mandate): After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.

KEY 2 (Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.

KEY 3 (Incumbency): The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.

KEY 4 (Third party): There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.

KEY 5 (Short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

KEY 6 (Long-term economy): Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

KEY 7 (Policy change): The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

KEY 8 (Social unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

KEY 9 (Scandal): The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

KEY 10 (Foreign/military failure): The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

KEY 11 (Foreign/military success): The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

KEY 12 (Incumbent charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

KEY 13 (Challenger charisma): The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

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Josh S Narins - 4/5/2004

LB Johnson became President when JF Kennedy was shot. The last southern President before that became President, when A Lincoln was shot.

GHW Bush is from Connecticutt, and not at all from Texas.

GW Bush spent one year at San Jacinto Junior High School. If a lifetime of prep schools and Yale, and one year of public Texas middle school makes one a Texan, then I am

A New Hampshire Native (born)
A New York Native (grew up in NYC burbs, living here now)
A New Jersey Native (raised there, incl. public junior high)
A New Mexico Native (9-11th grades, public and private schools)

And, for the record, Texan "culture" isn't quite the same as the South, which I generally say are the same seven states that seceded before A Lincoln took office.

Josh S Narins - 4/5/2004

I hear that if we use the unemployment rate calculation that America used in 1981, we'd have 9.6% unemployment today.

Same as France.

Josh S Narins - 4/5/2004

There have been three Southern Presidents in the last 145 years, one of whom assumed office upon the death of JF Kennedy, and one of whom who won in the wake of watergate.

That means one _real_ Southern victory, WJ Clinton, since
1859 A Johnson (not elected)
1848 Z Taylor (whiggish military man != pro-slavery)

I would imagine the South produces some of the scrappiest Democrats :)

Name Removed at Poster's Request - 3/15/2004

So how are Lyndon Johnson, George HR Bush and GW Bush not Southern? Nobody really believes that "Texas is not Southern," if that's what you want to claim.

Oscar Chamberlain - 3/11/2004

The dreary practical answer, of course, is that multiple executives blur responsibility, and blurred responsibility deflects the publics attention.

We ask too much of these people if we ask for all this. It's amazing that more don't go bonkers or make interns or start confusing themselves with the hand of god (the latter being a subset of "going bonkers").

It's enough for them to be decent presidents; must they also be heroes, savants, and preachers?

Clarence R. Smith - 3/11/2004

If the only problem were an extra 10% unemployment in the last few years or a lost war, the incumbent might still have a problem. If an increase of 2% in the last three months in unemployment of an administration after continual improvement over the previous 5 years, or a humiliating privation - a prominent hostage unrescuable for instance - the perception might be as bad as a disaster.

Bud Wood - 3/10/2004

Your question about "the Next Commander-in-Chief? Moral Leader-in-Chief? Educator-in-Chief? Statesman-in-Chief? Politician-in-Chief?" implies that there are positions for (at least) 5 people.

I guess the question could be, "Why not"?