As the Florida results come in, the once sturdy limb on which I had climbed to predict a Romney-Obama match-up is starting to crack under my feet.

If it is McCain v. Obama, the door will be wide up for a third party. If it is McCain v. Hillary, look for that door to be blown off the hinges. Too many conservatives loathe McCain to ever vote for him. The temptation for Paul (or Gary Johnson?) to run third party may be too hard to resist. Rasmussen reports on some of the possible third party scenarios here.