Can you predict the winner of the fall elections by watching the pop charts? I am not sure but my completely unscientific research sample gives an unqualified maybe. First, a note on methodology. Billboard makes you pay for access to their information, so I went to the RIAA website and found out what records went Gold and Platinum in the six months before each election since 1980. Then I had to rely on my memory for which albums were actually from that year as opposed to catalog sales. Party music and middle of the road dominated the 1980, 1984, and 1988 elections cycle. Christopher Cross, the Xanadu soundtrack, Rick Springfield, the Pointer Sisters all sold well during Reagan’s big triumphs. 1984 might appear to be more complicated as Bruce Springsteen and Prince both put out major albums that on the surface seem unrelated to or even hostile to Reagan. But although Prince’s album was musically revolutionary it was decidedly apolitical. The political lyrics of Springsteen’s Born in the USA were lost amid the triumphalist music. The depressing title song, originally an acoustic blues number for his Nebraska album, became the Reagan theme song despite mentions of unemployment and failure in Vietnam.

In 1992, the Bush camp should have known they were in trouble when Nirvana was going multi-platinum. It did not really matter what Kurt Cobain was saying, the howl (and the tattooed cheerleaders in the first video) spelled (or screamed) electoral disaster.

While it is always difficult to tell if pop culture is a marker of change or a contributing force, I’m guessing that if the Roots angry new album, the Tipping Point tops the charts, it will be bad news for the current Bush team.