Blogs > Liberty and Power > Treasury Default and Intrade

Mar 27, 2009 8:57 pm

Treasury Default and Intrade

I just discovered that the Intrade Prediction Market has a contract allowing you to bet on the probability of a U.S. Treasury default occurring before the end of the year. Currently the contract is around 5 percent. That seems high even to me. For some of my previous posts on this topic, go here, here, and here.

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Eric Hanneken - 3/26/2009

This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if the country named in the contract defaults on their debts before 11:59:59pm ET on the date sepcified in the contract.

All of their debts? 5% does sound too high.

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