Tightening Race or Desparate Press
Let me state that I'm not a media conspiracy theorist (although I'm a big fan of other conspiracy theories!), but I think that press is getting a little too carried away with this"tightening" in the national polls. Have we all forgotten 2000 already? Last time I checked the race was decided by electoral, not popular votes, and here is where Bush is looking very solid. Do yourself a favor, ignore the national polls and check out the state battleground poll averages at the Real Clear Politics webpage. Bush's lead in most of the battleground states hasn't moved, and he's currently winning Iowa, Wisconsin, and West Virginia. John Kerry is looking like a major electoral loser right now.
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Pat Lynch - 10/5/2004
Agreed - I think the broader point I'm trying to make here is that our obsession with national polls is a problem in a tight race like this - especially when votes in the vast majority of states this year just don't matter in the prez outcome - is a mistake. However you are quite right to note that it's hardly a certain outcome right now.
King Banaian - 10/5/2004
If you look at the summary page of electoral count on RCP you get Solid Bush 176, Leaning Bush 115, Toss-Up 47, Leaning Kerry 47, Solid Kerry 153. So while Bush is up 291-200 at the top of the page, it includes a lot of leaning states those you cite.
Kerry needs to knock Ohio and one other state away from Lean Bush to himself and grab the five tossup states. That's not at all out of the realm of possibility. I might suggest you also look at the Tradesports state-by-state markets.
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