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Deja vu - Judith Apter Klinghoffer


Dr. Judith Apter Klinghoffer taught history and International relations at Rowan University, Rutgers University, the Foreign Affairs College in Beijing as well as at Aarhus University in Denmark where she was a senior Fulbright professor. She is an affiliate professor at Haifa University. Her books include Israel and the Soviet Union, Vietnam, Jews and the Middle East: Unintended Consequences and , International Citizens' Tribunals: Mobilizing Public Opinion to Advance Human Rights

Palestinians may be lucky. Arafat (unlike Assad, Mubarak, Khadaffi, Hussein) does not have a son. This means that Arafat's death could give them a chance to conduct real elections. If only they can find a Mandela and keep him alive! Their long suffering people really deserve a break. Will Arafat's Tunisian friends unite with the locals and take advantage of the opportunity? If so, a Palestinian state at peace with Israel may finally become a reality.





Posted on Monday, November 15, 2004 - 21:04

From the Associated Press:

Excerpts from the letter found pinned with a knife to the body of Dutch filmmaker Theo van Gogh. The letter was addressed to Dutch lawmaker Ayaan Hirsi Ali, who wrote the script for Van Gogh's film"Submission." The letter also referred to other Dutch politicians, including Amsterdam Mayor Job Cohen, who is Jewish. It was written in Dutch and translated by The Associated Press.

Since your arrival in the political arena in the Netherlands you have been constantly busy terrorizing Muslims with your statements. You are not the first and not the last who has joined the crusade against Islam.

It is a fact that Dutch politics is dominated by many Jews.... What do you think of the fact that there is a Jew in power in Amsterdam?

Death, Ms. Hirsi Ali, is the common theme of all that exists. You and the rest of the cosmos cannot escape this truth.

There will come a day when one soul cannot help another soul. A day that goes paired with terrible tortures ... when the unjust will press horrible screams from their lungs. Screams, Ms. Hirsi Ali, that will cause chills to run down a person's back, and make the hairs on their heads stand straight up. People will be drunk with fear, while they are not drunken. Fear will fill the air on the Great Day.

Ms. Hirsi Ali and the rest of the extremist unbelievers: Islam has withstood many enemies and repressions throughout history. Ayaan Hirsi Ali, you will break yourself to pieces on Islam!

Islam will celebrate victory by the blood of the martyrs. There will be no mercy for the wicked, only the sword will be raised against them. No discussion, no demonstrations, no parades, no petitions, only death will separate truth from lies.

I know definitely that you, Oh America, will go down. I know definitely that you, Oh Europe, will go down. I know definitely that you, Oh Netherlands, will go down. I know definitely that you, Oh Hirsi Ali, will go down.





Posted on Friday, November 5, 2004 - 18:18

This is a time to be grateful because by rejecting appeasement, the American people strengthened the forces of good and thereby enhanced the prospects of real peace which comes when red ink replaced red blood as a way to settle differences. Just read Irshad Manji's response to the murder of Theo Van Gogh.

"Tuesday's slaying of Theo van Gogh, a Dutch filmmaker who criticized Islamic practices, reminds all of a nagging truth: More than 15 years after the government of Iran issued a death warrant against novelist Salman Rushdie, challenging Muslims remains a risky business.

As a Muslim dissident, I speak from experience. My book,"The Trouble with Islam," has put me on the receiving end of anger, hatred and vitriol. That's because I'm asking questions that we Muslims can no longer hide from. Why, for example, are we squandering the talents of half of God's creation, women? What's with the stubborn streak of anti-Semitism in Islam today? Above all, how can even moderate Muslims view the Koran literally when it, like every holy text, abounds in contradictions and ambiguity? The trouble with Islam today is that literalism is going mainstream.

In the same French news broadcast in which it was reported that murderer was tied to the Casablanca bombings, it showed Chirac writing a long letter of congratulations to Bush. Apparently, he wanted the French to know that he sent such a letter. Moreover, EU leaders met to discuss ways to help Iraq and later met with Alawi on the same subject. Bush is a fact of life their analysts were saying and we will have to deal with him.

Putin understood perfectly. He may have been reading Sun Tzu -

Warfare is the greatest affair of state, the basis of life and death, the Way (Tao) to survival or extinction. . . . .

The Tao causes the people to be fully in accord with the ruler. Thus they will die with him; they will live with him and not fear danger.

Bin Laden tried to convince the American to opt for truce and in the process he revealed to his followers both actual and potential that he was the weaker horse -

Progressive columnist Dr. Mamoun Fandy wrote an article in the Egyptian daily Al-Ahram titled 'Bin Laden Votes for John Kerry: A Tape of Admission, Voting and Capitulation.' He writes:

The tape is one of capitulation and bankruptcy, and not one of threat and warning, since bin Laden appears in regular robes and not in a military uniform with a rifle on his side. Bin Laden has relinquished his military [character] and his arms. This, of course, is intentional on the part of the public relations administration within Al-Qa'ida and outside it.

In addition, bin Laden does not refer at all to Jihad in this tape. There was no [mention] of Hadiths or of Koranic verses, and not even a mention of the month of Ramadan, which we [mark] today. The tape is devoid of religious manifestations and is devoid of any [mention] of the conflict between East and West, or [the war of] the Mujahideen against the infidel Crusaders, whether Christians or Jews.

Bin Laden's speech was restricted to technical issues of U.S. foreign policy and its relations with the Middle East. In addition, it was restricted to an attempt to influence the voters in every [U.S.] state, with [bin Laden] stating that [each] state is responsible for its own security by means of its vote – and bin Laden's lack of understanding of the internal situation in the U.S. is [yet another] issue, which I will not elaborate on here.

And as Bin Laden himself said, people like to follow the stronger horse. By making Bush the stronger horse, the American people diminished Al Qaeda recruiting.

This is also the opinion of Geroge Friedman, the founder of THE GEOPOLITICAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT who spells it out:

. With Bush's victory, one of the fundamental assumptions about the United States went out the window. In spite of casualties and grievous errors, not only was there no antiwar candidate (save Ralph Nader), but Bush actually won the election.

This puts in motion two processes in the world. First, there is a major rethinking of American staying power in the war going on. The assumption of a rapid conclusion of the Iraq campaign due to U.S. withdrawal is gone -- and it is surprising just how many non-Americans believed this to be a likely scenario. The reassessment of the United States is accompanied by the realization that the United States will not only maintain its pressure in Iraq, but on the region and the globe itself.

American pressure is not insubstantial. Virtually every country in the world wants something from the United States, from a trade agreement to support on a local conflict. They can do without an accommodation with the United States for months, but there is frequently serious pain associated with being at odds with the United States for years. Throughout the world, nations that have resisted U.S. actions in the war -- both within and outside of the region -- must now consider whether they can resist for years.

We can expect two things from Bush in general: relentlessness and linkage. Having won the election, Bush is not going to abandon his goal of crushing al Qaeda and pacifying Iraq and, indeed, the region. That is understood. Equally understood is that Bush will reward friends. Bush's test of friendship is simple: support for the United States and, in particular, support for the policies being pursued by his administration in the war. For Bush, active support for the war was a litmus test for good relations with the United States during the first term. The second term will make the first term look gentle.

Countries that made the decision not to support Bush did so with the assumption that they could absorb the cost for a while. They must now recalculate to see if they can absorb the cost for four more years -- and even beyond, if Bush's successor pursues his policies. For many countries, what was a temporary disagreement is about to turn into a strategic misalignment with the United States. Some countries will continue on their path, others will reconsider. There will be a reshuffling of the global deck in the coming months.

The same analysis being made in the world is also being made in Iraq. There are the guerrillas, most of whom are committed to fighting the United States to the death. But the guerrillas are not a massive force, and they depend for their survival and operational capabilities on a supportive population. In Iraq, support comes from the top down. It is the tribal elders, the senior clergy and the village leaders who make the crucial decisions. They are the ones who decide whether there will be popular support or not.

There has been an assumption in Iraq -- as there has in the world -- that as the pressure builds up in Iraq, the United States will move to abandon the war. Bush's re-election clearly indicates that the United States will not be abandoning the war. They are therefore recalculating their positions in the same way that the rest of the world is. Holding out against the Americans and allowing their populations to aid the guerrillas made a great deal of sense if the United States was about to retreat from Iraq. It is quite another matter if the United States is actually going to be increasing pressure.

It is no accident that as Election Day approached, U.S. forces very publicly -- and very slowly -- massed around Al Fallujah. Al Fallujah was the town in which the United States signed its first accord with the guerrillas. As the election approached, the town went out of control. Now the election is over, the town is surrounded and Bush is president. It is a time for recalculation in Al Fallujah as well, as there can be no doubt but that Bush is free to attack and might well do it.

Throughout the Sunni areas of Iraq -- as well as Shiite regions -- elders are considering their positions, caught between the United States and the guerrillas, in light of the new permanence of the Americans. The United States will be aggressive, but in an interesting way. It will be using the threat of American power as a lever to force the Sunni leadership into reducing support for the guerrillas. Coupled with the carrot of enormous bribes, the strategy could work. It might not eliminate the guerrilla war, but could reduce it to a nuisance level.

The basic reality thus creates the strategy. The re-election of Bush creates a new reality at all levels in the international system. His intransigence, coupled with American power, forces players to think about whether they can hold their positions for at least four years, or whether they must adjust their positions in some way. As the players -- from sheikhs to prime ministers -- reconsider their positions, U.S. power increases, trying to pry them loose. It opens the possibility of negotiations and settlements in unexpected places.

It also opens the door to potential disaster. The danger is that Bush will simultaneously overestimate his power and feel unbearable pressure to act quickly. This has led some previous presidents into massive errors of judgment. Put differently, the pressures and opportunities of the second term caused them to execute policies that appeared to be solutions but that blew up in their faces. None of them knew they would blow up, but in their circumstances, no one was sufficiently cautious.

It is precisely Bush's lack of caution that now becomes his greatest bargaining chip. But his greatest strength can also become his greatest weakness. The struggle between these two poles will mark the first part of his presidency. We will find out whether the second part will be the success of this strategy or his downfall. The book on George W. Bush will now be written.

As we say in Hebrew, Kol Hakavod! the the judgement of the American people(hats off?)





Posted on Friday, November 5, 2004 - 19:20

For really disturbing contrast READ:

It begins thus:"In a tape seized by authorities, radical Islamic cleric Abu Hamza al-Masri is heard urging Muslim women to breed children for the purpose of creating suicide bombers.

Lauding a mother who encouraged her son to carry out a suicide bombing in Israel, the British-based leader said in the lecture:"Everywhere, these are the women of mass destruction to the kuffar [unbelievers], and these are the action [sic] that put terror in their hearts."





Posted on Wednesday, November 3, 2004 - 23:13

Dr. Judith A. Klinghoffer is a senior research associate in the department of Political Science at Rutgers University, Camden. She is the co-author of International Citizens' Tribunals: Mobilizing Public Opinion to Advance Human Rights and the author of Vietnam, Jews and the Middle East: Unintended Consequences. Clich here for her blog on HNN.

I may be slow, but I think I finally got it. Interestingly, Bin Laden got it first. The worst mistake one can make is underestimating opponents or enemies. When John Kerry made his now famous comment that he wanted to reduce terrorism to a nuisance, Bin Laden understood it as an offer for a much needed truce. He liked what he heard. Bill Saffire -"Osama Casts His Vote" is right on that subject. In the past, Bin Laden put aside his hopes for a great Khalifat. After all the chances of that Khalifat have been greatly reduced by the American removal of two major pieces of territory which were supposed to compose that Khalifat. Afghanistan was the remote base from which like Mao he was supposed to emerge and take the center and Iraq is the center. Some American analysts may not like looking at maps but Osama knows better. So, he offer a truce."Your security is in your own hands, and any U.S. state that does not toy with our security automatically guarantees its own security." If you vote blue, I will go along with Kerry and return terrorism to a level of nuisance. In my last article "What If America Had Elected Walter Mondale in 1984?" I pointed out that a"Bush victory coming as it will in the wake of the Howard victory in Australia is bound to send a powerful message not only to the Islamists but also to our real and nominal Muslim allies that they better join the anti-Islamist fight and take the American demand for reform seriously. A Bush defeat is bound to send the opposite signal. Even if Kerry would like to prosecute the war on terror in Iraq and elsewhere, he would have to overcome the worldwide perception that the electorate has repudiated not only Bush but his forceful policy. In other words, much of the hard work and sacrifices made by the American people in the past three years would be wasted. This may not be fair, but it is nonetheless true and I suspect the American people know it."

Still, it is possible that not only Bin Laden but the American people also wish for a truce. I worry that it will be Munich all over again. It is a small wonder that Ellie Wiesel worries too.

"Wiesel recalls that after he publicly declared his support for intervention,"some people couldn't believe that I was for President Bush." But in his mind, that support was the natural continuation of a lifetime of work to advance human rights."We had to intervene in South Africa, against apartheid, and in the Soviet Union in its persecution of Jews and minorities and other dissidents.... If mass violations of human rights exist in a country, we must interfere," he says.

Wiesel believes Americans understand this. He disagrees with the view (popular among antiwar types) that the president dragged us into a war nobody wanted."I think the support was there in the beginning, and then slowly things began to happen. Suddenly there were no weapons of mass destruction, which had been an important argument in the very beginning. And then the ups and downs. Let's be honest, every day American soldiers die, and we weren't prepared for that." Plus, he says, in Iraq right now we are dealing with a vicious enemy that shows little sign of relenting."I don't like the term 'insurgents.' Those who kill are assassins, not insurgents. We are dealing with murder. That's why, I imagine, some Americans feel less enthusiastic about the war."

But even if the jitters are explainable, Wiesel doesn't think we should give in to them. The war on terrorism, he explains, is a worldwide human-rights struggle that Americans should be prepared to fight."I have been trying to alert those who read me or hear me to the threat of terrorism for years," he says."The whole world is now in danger." And America has a leadership role to play:"I believe the United States has been and must remain an example for other nations. [Promoting human rights] is about the celebration of our freedom, and our willingness to defend it."

Asked whether he thinks Americans have the staying power for a long struggle, Wiesel says,"I think the American people are idealistic. America came twice to Europe to save the continent. We had no economic or any other interest in the first World War and not even the second. America went to war against Hitler because he was evil and that was a just war. The American people have shown their willingness to accept sacrifices."

Still, he worries we'll grow listless over time. The greatest threat we face, he says, is"numbness. We become numb. That is a danger because of the numerous terrorist attacks that happen all over the world now. The danger is that so many tragedies will succeed one another we may become indifferent to them. I've been fighting indifference since I knew what indifference meant to my generation."

"I came to America from where I came from," Wiesel adds,"and therefore I am more sensitive to America's idealism than those who were born here. For them it is a granted condition to be free, for me it was not. To be free is important, but to bring freedom to those who are not free is even more important."

Wiesel's comments implicitly point to an inconsistency in the American character: We are idealistic but impatient, capable of great exertions but not always prepared to sustain them. As he suggests, we tend to see freedom as a default, and forget that it makes constant demands on us. And rarely are those demands more manifest than in times of war. Alexis de Tocqueville observed that democracies are not particularly well suited to"braving great storms" over time. The reason is that"men expose themselves to dangers and privations out of enthusiasm, but they remain exposed to them for a long time only out of reflection." People tend to"feel much more than they reason; and if the present evils are great, it is to be feared that they will forget the greater evils that perhaps await them in case of defeat."

Many have argued that, in this election, we're choosing whether to continue with the long, demanding project we started after September 11, or to try to forget what happened that day, at least until the next reminder.

Wiesel wished to stay out of electoral politics when he spoke to NRO, but he did offer this word of wisdom to American voters:"Every election is significant, but this one is more so. Because I think it could be a turning point. And therefore one should really think twice, three times, in his or her conscience about who he or she thinks is the best person to lead our nation in the coming four years."

These are valuable words for Americans to consider on Tuesday.





Posted on Monday, November 1, 2004 - 19:35