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Deja vu — Judith Apter Klinghoffer

Judith Apter Klinghoffer

Will El Baradei follow in U Thant's footsteps?

Ms. Klinghoffer is senior associate scholar at the Political Science department at Rutgers University, Camden, and the author of Vietnam, Jews and the Middle East. She is also an HNN blogger.

Frieda writes:

For an hour the whole Iranian nation was put on a suspense mode ...the t.v. was announcing that Ahmadniejad has a "good news" for the country...and he just announced that Iran has enriched Uranium ...!!!! Fars News headline declares: Islamic Republic of Iran has joined the International nuclear countries.

I know history rarely repeats itself but I cannot but notice the similarities between Gamal Abd'l Nasser and Ahmadinejad, between May 1967 and April 2006. The military swagger, the mobilization of the populations, and the threats to annihilate Israel are all reminiscent of Gamal Abdul-Nasser's Egypt. Then, as now, the real target was the US and the real goal the leadership of the greater Middle East. Then as now, the US was mired in a lengthy unpopular counter insurgency and the Israeli leadership seemed weak. Then as now, the West appeared divided and paralyzed and the UN appeasing.

Then, Nasser challenged the UN by demanding that it withdraw the UNEF forces positioned between Israel and Egypt as part of the UN negotiated deal which led to Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the Sinai after the 1956 war. The Security Council responded by sending Secretary General U Thant to discuss the Egyptian demands. While U Thant was on his way to Cairo, Nasser escalated the crisis by announcing the closure of the Straits of Tiran.

Instead of turning around U Thant not only went, agreed immediately to withdraw all the UNEF forces from Egypt and issued an appeal for a cooling off period on terms which, the horrified Ralph Bunch complained, placed him "in position of effectively endorsing the blockade and fully implementing it without any further effort by Nasser." The Six Day War became known as U Thant's War.

Today, the Security Council responded to Ahmadinejad's challenge by passing a watered down resolution urging Iran to comply with the demands of the IAEA and asked for an IAEA to report back to the Security within a week. In preparation for that report the IAEA chief Mohamed El Baradei is flying to Tehran. The announcement of the successful Uranium enrichment like the announcement of the closure of the Straits is intended to present him with a fait accompli.

The real question is will El Baradei fall into Ahmadinejad's trap in the same manner U Thant fell into Nasser's trap? If so, chances are that the subsequent military showdown will become known as "El Baradei's War." Moreover, the IAEA will emerge as damaged as the UN did. In a personal note dated June 7, Ralph Bunche wrote:

A likely result of the current war in the Near East will be a sharp curtailment, if not a complete end, of UN peacekeeping in that area. UNEF is finished and it may seriously be doubted that UNTSO (the UN Truce Supervisory Organization) will ever regain the status and responsibility that it has had since 1949. The decline of UN peacekeeping cannot fail to affect adversely the standing and prestige of the UN itself. (Urquhart, 1993, pp. 407408)

A few months ago Mohamed El Baradei received the Nobel Peace prize. Unlike previous winners, his was intended to strengthen his hand for just such an existential moment. Will it be enough?

For pictures of Iranian managed celebration, click here.

Posted on Tuesday, April 11, 2006 at 4:19 PM | Comments (44) | Return

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