I don't think that Bellin is arguing (nor am I) that the liberal remnants are the "major explanatory factor." I think she's saying that it takes a combination of factors: industrialization (and we might add: a growing middle class), some prior institutional experience with procedural democracy, homogeneous culture and ethnicity, and so forth.
You are right about the apocalyptic nature of the Japanese and German defeat, which shook the respective people's faith in their own institutions. Of course, the victory of WW 2 was so overwhelming that it eliminated all of the Axis powers, and, thus, destroyed any potential Axis allies in the postwar period from interfering with the restructuring of Japan or Germany. The same dynamic is not at work in the Middle East.
Theocracy of any sort, including Islamic fundamentalist theocracy, seeks to destroy the distinction between civil society and state. Some sort of civil society is required for the defeat of statism. But the delicate forces that forge civil society can't be imposed on a country by writ. I think that this last point is one of the central themes of Bellin's article.
by Chris Matthew Sciabarra on January 6, 2005 at 4:48 PM