Although the next presidential election is three and a half years away, the Keys already point to a dramatic political turnabout in 2008. It is still too early for a definite prediction. However, the Keys suggest that the Democrats are likely to regain the White House in 2008 regardless of their choice of a nominee. The difficult historical position of the Republicans also explains what’s happening in politics today.

I developed the Keys system in 1981, in collaboration with Volodia Keilis-Borok, a world-renowned authority on the mathematics of prediction models. History shows that the choice of a president does not turn on debates, advertising, speeches, endorsements, rallies, platforms, promises, or campaign tactics. Rather, presidential elections are primarily referenda on how well the party holding the White House has governed during its term. The Keys give specificity to this idea of how presidential elections work, assessing the performance, strength, and unity of the party holding the White House to determine whether or not it has crossed the threshold that separates victory from defeat.

Retrospectively, the Keys accurately account for the results of every presidential election from 1860 through 1980, much longer than any other prediction system. Prospectively, the Keys predicted well ahead of time the popular-vote winners of every presidential election from 1984 through 2004. As a nationally-based system the keys cannot diagnose the results in individual states and thus are attuned to the popular vote, not the Electoral College results. The 2000 election, however, was the only time since 1888 that the popular vote verdict diverged from the Electoral College results.

The Keys are 13 diagnostic questions that are stated as propositions that favor reelection of the incumbent party. When five or fewer of these propositions are false or turned against the party holding the White House, that party wins another term in office. When six or more are false, the challenging party wins.

According to the Keys, the incumbent Republicans are precariously positioned for 2008, with only four keys likely to fall in its favor. Four keys are uncertain and five Keys are likely to fall against the party in power. Thus, the GOP forfeits the White House in 2008 if the likely positive and negative keys line up as anticipated and just one of four uncertain keys falls against it.

The following four keys currently favor the incumbent Republican Party.

*The lack of any prospective third-party challenger with prospects of winning 5 percent of the vote tilts the third-party key towards the GOP.

*The absence of social upheavals comparable to the 1960’s, likely avoids the loss of the social unrest key.

*The lack of a significant scandal on the horizon that implicates the president should avert the loss of the scandal key.

*No prospective Democratic challenger matches the charisma of Franklin D. Roosevelt or John F. Kennedy, probably keeping the challenger charisma/hero key in line for the incumbents.

The following five keys are likely to fall against the incumbent party.

*The Democrats need to win just four U. S. House seats in the 2006 midterm elections to hold the GOP below their total seats after the 2002 midterm elections,toppling the mandate key.

*The Republicans are likely to battle fiercely in choosing a nominee to replace George W. Bush, forfeiting the contest key.

*Bush’s inability to run again in 2008 dooms the incumbency key.

*With bitter partisan divisions in Congress, Bush is unlikely to achieve the policy revolution needed to secure the policy-change key.

*The GOP lacks a prospective presidential candidate with the charisma of a Theodore Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan, jeopardizing the incumbent charisma/hero key.

The following four keys are uncertain.

*Both the long-term and short-term economy keys depend on unpredictable future trends in economic growth.

*Likewise both the foreign/military success and failure keys will turn on unforeseeable events abroad and in homeland security within the United States.

The difficult prospects for Republicans in 2008 explain much of today’s politics. The 2006 midterm elections are so critical because the mandate key turns on the outcome. The president and Republicans in Congress are pushing for the “nuclear option” to end judicial filibusters by majority vote because this is likely their last chance to pack the Courts with reliable conservatives. And the president is bucking public opinion on the rewriting of Social Security to win the pivotal policy change key for 2008.