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The new politics?
Consultants told him Americans might say in focus groups that they want a clean campaign but what they remember are negative ads. No, he answered, what Americans want is unity and idealism. Sick and tired of gridlock, they yearn deeply for someone to adopt a new politics that's a decisive break with the past.

Obama?

No. John Kerry. I was rereading Joe Klein's book, Politics Lost, which was written long before Obama decided to run for president, when I came across the above description of Kerry's campaign.

Kerry, of course, was a terrible candidate. A droner. Obama is one of the best candidates there ever was. And he is in a far better position to sell the same approach Kerry wanted to but couldn't.

But what will Obama do when HE gets swiftboated? If, Kerry-like, he ignores the catcalls his reputation will suffer as Kerry's did when he followed a high-moral-ground approach. If, in contrast, Obama goes after the attackers he'll risk sacrificing the moral high ground that is the basis for his candidacy. This will leave McCain free to ride the high moral ground. Because McCain is not likely to be swiftboated (Dems don't do switboating), he will have a natural advantage over Obama.

Those who think Obama has already faced an onslaught lack imagination. (Maureen Dowd, this means you!) What Obama has faced thus far is nothing to what he would face in a general election. So he hasn't yet had to shape a tactical response to a campaign of UNRELENTING attacks.

What might he do?

My guess is he would do what he has done in response to Clinton's attacks, which is to 1. publicly take the high ground while 2. surrogates suggest that racism is behind the attacks. The trouble with this approach is that it can't be sustained without race becoming the dominant issue of the campaign. This is problematic. Obama's chief appeal is that he is taking the country beyond race.





misunderstanding swiftboating?

I don't think the Wright story is swiftboating. My understanding of swiftboating was to go after a candidate's presumed strength - Kerry's war record - and attempt to neutralize it. I think that already happened with attacks on Obama's "empty words" and the charge of plagiarism. Clinton has also gone after the "above partisanship" image of Obama at every possible opportunity, constantly pointing out his campaign's critiques of her and charging that he was indulging in the "same old politics." And all of this HAS been unrelenting. I for one am not convinced that the Republican attacks in the fall are going to be this tsunami that Obama is going to have to be superhuman to withstand. The conventional Republican communications infrastructure of talk radio, etc. has proven to be of limited effectiveness this go 'round, otherwise John McCain would not be the nominee. The dynamics are different this cycle, and the Republicans are in a much weaker position. Not that McCain can't win, but I think Obama's strengths match up well with McCain's, and elections revolving around the records of unpopular presidents usually result in the American people choosing a candidate they perceive to be diametrically opposed to the sitting POTUS.

Re: Obama's response

You may be right that he tried a third way, Oscar: to change the debate.

But that will be difficult in a general election when he's facing thousands of 30 second spots.

I still think he's boxed himself in and has an untenable position. In a knife fight you have to fight with a knife. If he pulls his out he'll be considered a hypocrite. If he doesn't he'll be considered a wimp.

That's my hunch as to how things will play out. I HOPE I'M WRONG!




Re: Obama's response

I think that makes Bill's actions worse than they were. The original swift-boat attach was on a far larger scale and even more dubious grounds. Also Kerry had played up his war experience in a way that made him particularly vulnerable to it.

However, I think you may be right that Obama is better prepared than many think.

Obama's response

Obama has done more than the one-two response you give above. In the case of Wright, he responded by trying to change the fundamental politics of the situation with his speech. He is still hurt by it in some quarters, but not nearly as badly as would have been otherwise. He also picked up some supporters who had been undecided before.

That does not make the rest of your warning incorrect. I just watched a Supreme court candidate in Wisconsin get defeated narrowly by dishonest tactics from some conservative groups. In a close election, swift boat tactics can be very effective.

The best possible response would be to somehow make those tactics themselves seem suspicious to undecided voters. That's not impossible. Obama's eloquence would help a lot. But it would still be very hard.

Re: Obama's response

Something tells me that Obama has contingency plan in place for negativity. To his credit, he doesn't seem to "get surprised" on the campaign trail. And he's getting practice: isn't Bill Hillary's swiftboat? - TL