This seems to be the foreign policy expert consensus. WSJ editors write:
'Mark my words. It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama. . . . I guarantee you it's gonna happen." Joe Biden's famous campaign gaffe-as-prophecy was off by six months. How Mr. Obama responds to the Kremlin's provocation this week will offer an important glimpse of his Administration's approach to foreign policy.
And more surprisingly, Will Marshall, the president of the Progressive Policy Institute seconds:
Speaking of resolve, it took Russian President Dmitry Medvedev just two days to confirm Joe Biden's famous prediction that Mr. Obama would be"tested" by foreign adversaries. Mr. Medvedev threatened to deploy short-range missiles near Poland unless Mr. Obama abandons the Bush administration's plan to deploy missile defenses there. Cool reason and quiet diplomacy may yet head off an early confrontation with Russia, but in any case President-elect Obama must stand firm against such blatant attempts at intimidation.
The rest of the media agrees.
As expected, it is going to be a very bumpy ride. May our vehicle get through safely.