Return to Osama and Saddam, Yet Again
Re: There seems to be too much micro-analysis
(#36791)
by Chris Matthew Sciabarra on June 17, 2004 at 5:37 PM
by Chris Matthew Sciabarra on June 17, 2004 at 5:37 PM
Jason, I agree that there were political costs involved in doing nothing; however, I also believe that the Bush administration was predisposed to taking out Hussein. If it had not been pressing this case, I could not imagine how the political costs would have been prohibitive, considering that the administration still had its hands full with Al Qaeda, on which blame for the 9/11 attack was firmly placed. Demands for military action against that network would certainly have quenched the cultural thirst for justice.
I do agree that we are ultimately debating strategy here; but in terms of political costs---I sincerely doubt that this administration will do anything to undermine the House of Sa'ud.
BTW, I think you'd find this article by Zev Chafets interesting; I don't agree with Chafets---but he does have a point about how the case for war against Iraq was seriously undermined by the administration's own rhetorical failings:
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/col/story/203272p-175375c.html
I do agree that we are ultimately debating strategy here; but in terms of political costs---I sincerely doubt that this administration will do anything to undermine the House of Sa'ud.
BTW, I think you'd find this article by Zev Chafets interesting; I don't agree with Chafets---but he does have a point about how the case for war against Iraq was seriously undermined by the administration's own rhetorical failings:
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/col/story/203272p-175375c.html
Re: There seems to be too much micro-analysis
(#36818)
by Keith Halderman on June 17, 2004 at 10:10 PM
by Keith Halderman on June 17, 2004 at 10:10 PM
There may have been political costs to not invading Iraq but they would been entirely self-generated.
Re: There seems to be too much micro-analysis
(#36835)
by Jason Pappas on June 18, 2004 at 9:01 AM
by Jason Pappas on June 18, 2004 at 9:01 AM
I'm not too sure what you mean here.
However, let me introduce another factor. You may notice how the 9/11 commission continues to imply that more action should have been taken on the tiniest sliver of evidence or even rumor. Now, imagine if we didn’t invade Iraq. The continual reports about Saddam would have created a ground swell from Bush’s opposition: why aren’t we doing something about Iraq? Regime change was Clinton’s policy as was bombing Iraq and sanctions (via the UN). Given Saddam’s history, I don’t see how Bush could have avoided doing something about Saddam. With Saddam there are many claims, articles, books, media reports and rumors. If Saddam did become involve in some hostile act or attack, imagine the political costs.
I can imagine an intelligent and articulate President creating a clear and coherent policy which avoided action in Iraq – but not Bush. Bush is severely handicapped. Now that is a problem of his own making! Now, I'm guess I'm focusing too much on the man when criticism should be directed against his policy and principles (or lack of them).
However, let me introduce another factor. You may notice how the 9/11 commission continues to imply that more action should have been taken on the tiniest sliver of evidence or even rumor. Now, imagine if we didn’t invade Iraq. The continual reports about Saddam would have created a ground swell from Bush’s opposition: why aren’t we doing something about Iraq? Regime change was Clinton’s policy as was bombing Iraq and sanctions (via the UN). Given Saddam’s history, I don’t see how Bush could have avoided doing something about Saddam. With Saddam there are many claims, articles, books, media reports and rumors. If Saddam did become involve in some hostile act or attack, imagine the political costs.
I can imagine an intelligent and articulate President creating a clear and coherent policy which avoided action in Iraq – but not Bush. Bush is severely handicapped. Now that is a problem of his own making! Now, I'm guess I'm focusing too much on the man when criticism should be directed against his policy and principles (or lack of them).
Re: There seems to be too much micro-analysis
(#36843)
by Keith Halderman on June 18, 2004 at 10:53 AM
by Keith Halderman on June 18, 2004 at 10:53 AM
The only reason the average America cared about Iraq was because the neo-conservatives and the Bush administration were constantly promoting the idea that he was a threat. They were the ones talking about WMDs (that turned out to have been already destroyed) and implicily claiming involvement with 9-11 (which was untrue). Without this self-generated propaganda they could have come to an accomadation with Hussein, a natural enemy of Bin Laden concerned solely with self-preservation. He could have been turned into an asset in the war on terror, a political plus.
Re: There seems to be too much micro-analysis
(#36834)
by Jason Pappas on June 18, 2004 at 8:46 AM
by Jason Pappas on June 18, 2004 at 8:46 AM
What Chafetz is saying is true. Bush is an intellectual coward. He won't name what we are fighting but refers to the enemy by the tactic they are using. Thus, his program has no moral clarity or clear aim. And he is friendly with Saudi Arabia, who clearly embraces, in principle and practice, the Islamo-fascist movement. His Pragmatist approach is failing in the field and losing his support at home. Hmmmm. Who taught us about that?
I've been arguing on Atlantis II that a vigorous intellectual war and propaganda campaign is a prerequisite to a successful war or, even better yet, a substitute. And it makes it clear when and where military force should be used and in what limited manner. As you make clear, but few pick up, nation building is not appropriate. Nor is coalition-building (entangling alliances) - with a few exceptions for immediate action against common threats.
I've been arguing on Atlantis II that a vigorous intellectual war and propaganda campaign is a prerequisite to a successful war or, even better yet, a substitute. And it makes it clear when and where military force should be used and in what limited manner. As you make clear, but few pick up, nation building is not appropriate. Nor is coalition-building (entangling alliances) - with a few exceptions for immediate action against common threats.
Re: There seems to be too much micro-analysis
(#36839)
by Chris Matthew Sciabarra on June 18, 2004 at 9:37 AM
by Chris Matthew Sciabarra on June 18, 2004 at 9:37 AM
I agree that a principled intellectual war is a prerequisite.
The problem that I have been noting, however, for a very long time now is this: The political economy of what Rand called "the New Fascism"---her description of the current social system---is such that principles are the first thing sacrificed, along with honesty, integrity, independence, and justice. The system itself both creates and reproduces the pressure groups that gain power over the apparatus of political decision-making. This takes place in the realms of both domestic and foreign policy, and the process is reciprocally reinforcing.
So, while I thoroughly agree that an intellectual war is a prerequisite and that US "alliances" are often as (or more) problematic than the "enemies" it targets, the bald truth is that little can be done to alter the structural dynamics of this social system once its players set into motion certain broad policies. The means by which political decisions are made are so deeply embedded in institutional structures that no change in leadership makes a fundamental difference.
Now, it is true that Presidents can make a rhetorical difference; witness Reagan. But for all his libertarian-tinged rhetoric, for all his profound influence on the parameters of American political debate, he did very little to alter the structural dynamics of the system. The welfare and regulatory state remains intact, the budget deficits never really went away (creative budgeting notwithstanding), and the incestuous ties of business and government at home, and abroad, are as strong as ever.
I don't wish to imply that the US can't do anything before it transforms everything fundamentally; that would be a prescription for nonaction in the face of any threats to national security. But because it can't alter everything, it needs to focus on doing a few things ~right~. And in my view, the Iraq war was not one of these ~right~ things.
Be that as it may: The US presence in Iraq is now a fact, and the complications that have been set in motion were a necessary consequence of the insidious Wilsonian premises upon which that presence was built.
The problem that I have been noting, however, for a very long time now is this: The political economy of what Rand called "the New Fascism"---her description of the current social system---is such that principles are the first thing sacrificed, along with honesty, integrity, independence, and justice. The system itself both creates and reproduces the pressure groups that gain power over the apparatus of political decision-making. This takes place in the realms of both domestic and foreign policy, and the process is reciprocally reinforcing.
So, while I thoroughly agree that an intellectual war is a prerequisite and that US "alliances" are often as (or more) problematic than the "enemies" it targets, the bald truth is that little can be done to alter the structural dynamics of this social system once its players set into motion certain broad policies. The means by which political decisions are made are so deeply embedded in institutional structures that no change in leadership makes a fundamental difference.
Now, it is true that Presidents can make a rhetorical difference; witness Reagan. But for all his libertarian-tinged rhetoric, for all his profound influence on the parameters of American political debate, he did very little to alter the structural dynamics of the system. The welfare and regulatory state remains intact, the budget deficits never really went away (creative budgeting notwithstanding), and the incestuous ties of business and government at home, and abroad, are as strong as ever.
I don't wish to imply that the US can't do anything before it transforms everything fundamentally; that would be a prescription for nonaction in the face of any threats to national security. But because it can't alter everything, it needs to focus on doing a few things ~right~. And in my view, the Iraq war was not one of these ~right~ things.
Be that as it may: The US presence in Iraq is now a fact, and the complications that have been set in motion were a necessary consequence of the insidious Wilsonian premises upon which that presence was built.
Return to Osama and Saddam, Yet Again
by Jason Pappas on June 17, 2004 at 1:31 PM