Julian E. Zelizer: Why Obama Will Be Tough to Beat
[Julian E. Zelizer is a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University. He is the author of "Jimmy Carter," published by Times Books, and editor of a book assessing former President George W. Bush's administration, published by Princeton University Press.]
Republicans are looking ahead -- some with glee and others with fear -- to the presidential election in 2012....
But Republicans have also expressed a significant amount of hesitation about jumping into the race. Christie still says he is not planning to run. Gingrich has been going back and forth. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has delayed a decision and Sen. John Thune of South Dakota has already dropped out....
Most of them, even the optimists, realize that there is a rough road ahead. With all the challenges that President Obama confronts, he won't be easy to beat.
The fact is that it has been extremely difficult in recent history to defeat presidential incumbents who decide to run for a second term. Since Herbert Hoover lost to Franklin Roosevelt in 1932, only three incumbents have been defeated in their re-election bid -- Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1992. Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson announced they would not run in the middle of the primaries....
History should give Republicans some pause as they start to think about their choice. None of this means Obama is a lock for re-election. After all, conditions can change and new voices can rapidly emerge in today's media. But it's going to take a special candidate and a change in the political environment for a Republican to win.
Read entire article at CNN.com
Republicans are looking ahead -- some with glee and others with fear -- to the presidential election in 2012....
But Republicans have also expressed a significant amount of hesitation about jumping into the race. Christie still says he is not planning to run. Gingrich has been going back and forth. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has delayed a decision and Sen. John Thune of South Dakota has already dropped out....
Most of them, even the optimists, realize that there is a rough road ahead. With all the challenges that President Obama confronts, he won't be easy to beat.
The fact is that it has been extremely difficult in recent history to defeat presidential incumbents who decide to run for a second term. Since Herbert Hoover lost to Franklin Roosevelt in 1932, only three incumbents have been defeated in their re-election bid -- Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1992. Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson announced they would not run in the middle of the primaries....
History should give Republicans some pause as they start to think about their choice. None of this means Obama is a lock for re-election. After all, conditions can change and new voices can rapidly emerge in today's media. But it's going to take a special candidate and a change in the political environment for a Republican to win.