The presidential election campaign in the United States is likely to cost not less than two billion dollars between the candidates, 13 times the bill 30 years ago. But campaigns can have little or no effect on the outcome, which is determined by certain fixed factors, argues Allan J Lichtman, Professor of History at the American University. 

In an interaction with senior editors at Hindustan Times, Prof Lichtman predicted that the victory of Barack Obama is certain, basing his analysis on “the 13 keys to the White House,” a framework that he used to correctly predict seven presidential elections. The 13 keys range from the charisma of the incumbent to the administration’s major success in a foreign policy issue. Of the 13 keys, Obama has the advantageous position in at least 10....