Ronald Brownstein: History Suggests Bush Will Have a Hard Time Recovering
...If he stays where he is, Bush could drag Republicans down with him in the 2006 and 2008 elections. The more relevant question is whether Bush can climb out of this hole....
Bush's situation overlaps least with two of the modern two-term presidents.
Richard M. Nixon's second term was consumed by scandal, and he resigned in the face of impeachment for his role in the Watergate coverup. Despite Fitzgerald's indictment of I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby, Vice President Dick Cheney's former chief of staff, no one has yet suggested that the investigation could pose such personal risks for Bush.
Clinton's experience also doesn't seem very relevant. Like Nixon, Clinton was battered by scandal and impeached (though not convicted by the Senate). But his job approval ratings and support for his agenda remained high throughout his second term. As with many aspects of his political career, Clinton's second-term experience belongs to a category of its own.
The positive models for Bush are two Republican presidents: Dwight D. Eisenhower and Ronald Reagan tripped in their second term but recovered.
The Russian launch of Sputnik and an economic slowdown nicked Eisenhower's popularity and precipitated big GOP losses in the 1958 congressional elections. But Eisenhower regained momentum, partly by confronting the Democratic Congress to reduce federal spending.
Reagan staggered with the disclosure of the Iran-Contra scandal in late 1986. But he installed a new White House staff and energetically pursued better relations with the Soviet Union. Reagan revived his public standing in time to help George H.W. Bush, his vice president and the current president's father, win the White House in 1988.
Bush could easily draw on both those precedents. He's embraced budget hawks in the House who are demanding bigger cuts to offset Katrina spending -- a move conservatives consider crucial to reenergizing the party base after the debacle of Bush's Supreme Court nomination of Harriet E. Miers.
Calling for more cuts "was the biggest political adjustment he's made in months and will pay the biggest dividends if he follows through," said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.).
North Korea and the Israeli-Palestinian dispute don't appear to provide opportunities nearly as great as those that Mikhail S. Gorbachev, then the Soviet leader, presented Reagan. But as with Reagan -- and most second-term presidents -- Bush could turn more to foreign policy to regain his footing.
Yet in one fundamental respect, Bush faces a more imposing challenge than Reagan or Eisenhower -- neither was fighting an unpopular war while he tried to rebuild his second term. Bush is.
In that sense, Bush's situation may be much closer to that of two Democratic presidents during what amounted to their second terms.
Harry S. Truman and Lyndon B. Johnson were elected to full terms after completing the term of a president who died in office. And both suffered catastrophic declines in support after winning those elections, largely because of discontent over wars in Korea and Vietnam.
"That is closer to what Bush is facing than these analogies to Reagan," said presidential historian Robert Dallek. With war bleeding their support, neither Truman nor Johnson ever recovered. Both left office amid widespread disenchantment that helped the GOP win the White House when they stepped down.
To Dallek, that experience teaches that it will be "tremendously difficult" for Bush to regain momentum without major progress in Iraq....
Bush's situation overlaps least with two of the modern two-term presidents.
Richard M. Nixon's second term was consumed by scandal, and he resigned in the face of impeachment for his role in the Watergate coverup. Despite Fitzgerald's indictment of I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby, Vice President Dick Cheney's former chief of staff, no one has yet suggested that the investigation could pose such personal risks for Bush.
Clinton's experience also doesn't seem very relevant. Like Nixon, Clinton was battered by scandal and impeached (though not convicted by the Senate). But his job approval ratings and support for his agenda remained high throughout his second term. As with many aspects of his political career, Clinton's second-term experience belongs to a category of its own.
The positive models for Bush are two Republican presidents: Dwight D. Eisenhower and Ronald Reagan tripped in their second term but recovered.
The Russian launch of Sputnik and an economic slowdown nicked Eisenhower's popularity and precipitated big GOP losses in the 1958 congressional elections. But Eisenhower regained momentum, partly by confronting the Democratic Congress to reduce federal spending.
Reagan staggered with the disclosure of the Iran-Contra scandal in late 1986. But he installed a new White House staff and energetically pursued better relations with the Soviet Union. Reagan revived his public standing in time to help George H.W. Bush, his vice president and the current president's father, win the White House in 1988.
Bush could easily draw on both those precedents. He's embraced budget hawks in the House who are demanding bigger cuts to offset Katrina spending -- a move conservatives consider crucial to reenergizing the party base after the debacle of Bush's Supreme Court nomination of Harriet E. Miers.
Calling for more cuts "was the biggest political adjustment he's made in months and will pay the biggest dividends if he follows through," said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.).
North Korea and the Israeli-Palestinian dispute don't appear to provide opportunities nearly as great as those that Mikhail S. Gorbachev, then the Soviet leader, presented Reagan. But as with Reagan -- and most second-term presidents -- Bush could turn more to foreign policy to regain his footing.
Yet in one fundamental respect, Bush faces a more imposing challenge than Reagan or Eisenhower -- neither was fighting an unpopular war while he tried to rebuild his second term. Bush is.
In that sense, Bush's situation may be much closer to that of two Democratic presidents during what amounted to their second terms.
Harry S. Truman and Lyndon B. Johnson were elected to full terms after completing the term of a president who died in office. And both suffered catastrophic declines in support after winning those elections, largely because of discontent over wars in Korea and Vietnam.
"That is closer to what Bush is facing than these analogies to Reagan," said presidential historian Robert Dallek. With war bleeding their support, neither Truman nor Johnson ever recovered. Both left office amid widespread disenchantment that helped the GOP win the White House when they stepped down.
To Dallek, that experience teaches that it will be "tremendously difficult" for Bush to regain momentum without major progress in Iraq....