Charlie Cook: Throw history out the window ... Past patterns may not apply in 2008 presidential campaign
Just as baseball fans tend to be hooked on statistics -- and the more arcane the better -- political aficionados often look to historical precedents and analogous situations for clues of future events, whether truly applicable or not.
All in all, it's not a bad thing, as long as one does not become a prisoner of history. But this presidential campaign might be so different that many past patterns will not apply or might be terribly misleading.
Over the last 90 years, only two sitting U.S. senators have won the presidency -- Warren G. Harding in 1920 and John F. Kennedy in 1960. The New York Times recently pointed out that the last two former mayors elected were Grover Cleveland in 1884 and Calvin Coolidge in 1924. No woman, black or Mormon has ever even won a party nomination. Furthermore, no Arizonan has won the presidency nor has anyone over 70 won a first term.
So here is the bottom line: History will be made, or at least long-standing patterns will be altered, almost no matter what happens in this election.
This will be the first post-9/11 presidential election with no incumbent running. Will the war in Iraq elevate foreign policy to a point where current or former governors and mayors need not apply? Or could only one with extraordinary intellect and/or leadership skills still make it?
The only contested presidential nomination in 2004 was on the Democratic side. During 2003, the top fundraiser was former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, who pulled in just over $40 million. Sens. John Kerry, D-Mass., and John Edwards, D-N.C., raised just over $15 million and $10 million, respectively. Kerry won the nomination and Edwards ran second. But this time, it might be that any candidate who does not raise at least $75 million -- some say $100 million -- will not be viable. ...
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All in all, it's not a bad thing, as long as one does not become a prisoner of history. But this presidential campaign might be so different that many past patterns will not apply or might be terribly misleading.
Over the last 90 years, only two sitting U.S. senators have won the presidency -- Warren G. Harding in 1920 and John F. Kennedy in 1960. The New York Times recently pointed out that the last two former mayors elected were Grover Cleveland in 1884 and Calvin Coolidge in 1924. No woman, black or Mormon has ever even won a party nomination. Furthermore, no Arizonan has won the presidency nor has anyone over 70 won a first term.
So here is the bottom line: History will be made, or at least long-standing patterns will be altered, almost no matter what happens in this election.
This will be the first post-9/11 presidential election with no incumbent running. Will the war in Iraq elevate foreign policy to a point where current or former governors and mayors need not apply? Or could only one with extraordinary intellect and/or leadership skills still make it?
The only contested presidential nomination in 2004 was on the Democratic side. During 2003, the top fundraiser was former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, who pulled in just over $40 million. Sens. John Kerry, D-Mass., and John Edwards, D-N.C., raised just over $15 million and $10 million, respectively. Kerry won the nomination and Edwards ran second. But this time, it might be that any candidate who does not raise at least $75 million -- some say $100 million -- will not be viable. ...