David Frum: The Democrats' Ronald Reagan moment
[David Frum is a former speechwriter for President George W. Bush and a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.]
Americans yesterday passed the gloomiest Fourth of July in years, if not decades. More than four out of five Americans describe the country as “on the wrong track,” the worst score since polling on this question began in the 1960s. Consumer confidence is reaching historic lows. Only one out of three Americans expects a better life for his or her children.
The United States is not in technical recession, but jobless numbers are rising. House prices are declining, as are stock prices. Half of all Americans report that high fuel prices have curtailed their vacation plans: Even as you read this, families all over America are explaining to their four-year-olds that they will not, after all, be going to Disney World this summer.
For most people, the situation cannot truly be described as one of hardship: One recent Associated Press article on the economy illustrated the situation with the story of a Dallas homemaker who had switched to bar soap from a favoured lotion. But the mood is certainly highly anxious and discontented. As that same Dallas homemaker said: “It’s depressing and it makes you nervous.”
These are dangerous conditions for an incumbent political party. No wonder Barack Obama presidential futures are trading at more than double the price of John McCain futures on the Internet betting markets. Note, though, something
important about the current American mood: Though eager for change, it is not radical. It wants change for the better, not change to the left. Only 13% of Americans (and only 19% of Democrats!) want to see government act to redistribute wealth, according to a June Gallup poll — 84% would prefer to see government work to improve overall economic conditions.
But what people want is not always what they get. Political change often comes from the top down, not from the bottom up.
Recall what happened in the United States in 1979-80. There was no vast national clamour for Reagan-style conservatism. But there was massive dissatisfaction with Jimmy Carter’s disastrous presidency. All Reagan needed to do was show himself as an acceptable alternative — and in his magnificent debate performance only a week before voting day, he did just that. Reagan won an electoral-college landslide: 489 electoral votes to 49 for Carter. The Republicans gained a majority in the U.S. Senate for the first time since 1953-55.
Look closer though, and you see a more equivocal result. Reagan received only 50.7% of the popular vote, just half a point better than Jimmy Carter had won in 1976. Reagan’s victory appeared overwhelming because of the collapse of the Democratic vote: 41% for Carter in 1980. (Most of the remainder of the vote went to an independent liberal candidate, Congressman John Anderson.)
Reagan got his chance — and he used it. Over the next four years, he implemented a dramatic series of policy changes, including major tax cuts, spending restraint and substantial reductions in federal regulation. He supported the Federal Reserve as it squeezed inflation out of the economy. The changes hurt, and Reagan’s popularity suffered: It bottomed in early 1983 at 35% approval.
Quickly afterward, however, the United States began to recoup the benefits. The economy rocketed upward in 1983-1984. The Soviets slowly began to make concessions to the tough new administration. The first personal computers announced a technological revolution. Reagan won a genuine landslide in 1984: 58.8% of the vote. His policy revolution was ratified — and would shape American politics for the next quarter century.
Now we are reaching the end of another repudiated presidency. George W. Bush finishes his term in office with an approval rating in the 28%-30% range, about the same as Jimmy Carter’s. That opens a huge opportunity for Democrats.
Not since 1964 has the Democratic party simultaneously won a majority of the vote for president while also increasing its representation in both Houses of Congress. There’s a very realistic possibility that they will do just that this year. Which opens the question: Then what? Will they launch a dramatic policy revolution, as Reagan did in 1980? The temptation to try will be strong, perhaps overwhelming...
Read entire article at National Post
Americans yesterday passed the gloomiest Fourth of July in years, if not decades. More than four out of five Americans describe the country as “on the wrong track,” the worst score since polling on this question began in the 1960s. Consumer confidence is reaching historic lows. Only one out of three Americans expects a better life for his or her children.
The United States is not in technical recession, but jobless numbers are rising. House prices are declining, as are stock prices. Half of all Americans report that high fuel prices have curtailed their vacation plans: Even as you read this, families all over America are explaining to their four-year-olds that they will not, after all, be going to Disney World this summer.
For most people, the situation cannot truly be described as one of hardship: One recent Associated Press article on the economy illustrated the situation with the story of a Dallas homemaker who had switched to bar soap from a favoured lotion. But the mood is certainly highly anxious and discontented. As that same Dallas homemaker said: “It’s depressing and it makes you nervous.”
These are dangerous conditions for an incumbent political party. No wonder Barack Obama presidential futures are trading at more than double the price of John McCain futures on the Internet betting markets. Note, though, something
important about the current American mood: Though eager for change, it is not radical. It wants change for the better, not change to the left. Only 13% of Americans (and only 19% of Democrats!) want to see government act to redistribute wealth, according to a June Gallup poll — 84% would prefer to see government work to improve overall economic conditions.
But what people want is not always what they get. Political change often comes from the top down, not from the bottom up.
Recall what happened in the United States in 1979-80. There was no vast national clamour for Reagan-style conservatism. But there was massive dissatisfaction with Jimmy Carter’s disastrous presidency. All Reagan needed to do was show himself as an acceptable alternative — and in his magnificent debate performance only a week before voting day, he did just that. Reagan won an electoral-college landslide: 489 electoral votes to 49 for Carter. The Republicans gained a majority in the U.S. Senate for the first time since 1953-55.
Look closer though, and you see a more equivocal result. Reagan received only 50.7% of the popular vote, just half a point better than Jimmy Carter had won in 1976. Reagan’s victory appeared overwhelming because of the collapse of the Democratic vote: 41% for Carter in 1980. (Most of the remainder of the vote went to an independent liberal candidate, Congressman John Anderson.)
Reagan got his chance — and he used it. Over the next four years, he implemented a dramatic series of policy changes, including major tax cuts, spending restraint and substantial reductions in federal regulation. He supported the Federal Reserve as it squeezed inflation out of the economy. The changes hurt, and Reagan’s popularity suffered: It bottomed in early 1983 at 35% approval.
Quickly afterward, however, the United States began to recoup the benefits. The economy rocketed upward in 1983-1984. The Soviets slowly began to make concessions to the tough new administration. The first personal computers announced a technological revolution. Reagan won a genuine landslide in 1984: 58.8% of the vote. His policy revolution was ratified — and would shape American politics for the next quarter century.
Now we are reaching the end of another repudiated presidency. George W. Bush finishes his term in office with an approval rating in the 28%-30% range, about the same as Jimmy Carter’s. That opens a huge opportunity for Democrats.
Not since 1964 has the Democratic party simultaneously won a majority of the vote for president while also increasing its representation in both Houses of Congress. There’s a very realistic possibility that they will do just that this year. Which opens the question: Then what? Will they launch a dramatic policy revolution, as Reagan did in 1980? The temptation to try will be strong, perhaps overwhelming...