Alan I. Abramowitz: How Bush Turned A Generation Into Liberals
[Alan I. Abramowitz is a professor of political science at Emory University.]
Young voters played a crucial role in Barack Obama's successful campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination. In state after state, exit polls showed that Obama received his strongest support from voters under the age of 30. Now that he has clinched the Democratic nomination, Obama is counting on strong support from under-thirties to offset John McCain's expected advantage among older white voters, some of whom continue to be uneasy about the prospect of an African American president.
Recent polling data suggest that younger voters are poised to turn out and vote for Barack Obama in very large numbers. According to a recent Gallup Poll analysis, in mid-June Obama held a relatively narrow five point lead over John McCain among all registered voters. Among 18-29 year-olds, however, Obama held an enormous 27 point lead, 59 percent to 32 percent. Obama's support among younger voters was largely responsible for his overall lead in the poll.
Barack Obama clearly has a special ability to connect with younger Americans. For many young people, Obama, like John F. Kennedy in 1960, represents a new generation of leaders not associated with the controversies and failures of the past. It is also much easier for many young people to identify with the 46-year-old Obama, who casually references Jay-Z lyrics on the stump, than the 71-year-old McCain, who has admitted to not knowing how to use a computer. But the strong support that Barack Obama is receiving from younger Americans is not a new development in American politics. It is a continuation of a trend that has been underway since the 2000 election.
Eight years ago, Americans under the age of 30 were almost indistinguishable from their elders in their candidate preferences. According to the 2000 national exit poll, Al Gore received 51 percent of the vote among those under the age of 30 versus 50 percent among those 30 and older. By 2004, however, a generation gap was evident. The national exit poll showed John Kerry receiving 54 percent of the under-30 vote versus 47 percent among those 30 and older. In congressional races in 2006, the gap was slightly larger. According to the national exit poll, Democratic House candidates received 61 percent of the 18-29 vote versus 53 percent among their elders.
The increasingly Democratic voting tendencies of younger Americans have been accompanied by a shift in their party loyalties. According to the exit poll data, the percentage of voters under the age of 30 identifying with the Democratic Party rose from 39 percent in 2000 to 43 percent in 2006, while the percentage identifying with the Republican Party fell from 37 percent in 2000 to 31 percent in 2006....
Read entire article at New Republic
Young voters played a crucial role in Barack Obama's successful campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination. In state after state, exit polls showed that Obama received his strongest support from voters under the age of 30. Now that he has clinched the Democratic nomination, Obama is counting on strong support from under-thirties to offset John McCain's expected advantage among older white voters, some of whom continue to be uneasy about the prospect of an African American president.
Recent polling data suggest that younger voters are poised to turn out and vote for Barack Obama in very large numbers. According to a recent Gallup Poll analysis, in mid-June Obama held a relatively narrow five point lead over John McCain among all registered voters. Among 18-29 year-olds, however, Obama held an enormous 27 point lead, 59 percent to 32 percent. Obama's support among younger voters was largely responsible for his overall lead in the poll.
Barack Obama clearly has a special ability to connect with younger Americans. For many young people, Obama, like John F. Kennedy in 1960, represents a new generation of leaders not associated with the controversies and failures of the past. It is also much easier for many young people to identify with the 46-year-old Obama, who casually references Jay-Z lyrics on the stump, than the 71-year-old McCain, who has admitted to not knowing how to use a computer. But the strong support that Barack Obama is receiving from younger Americans is not a new development in American politics. It is a continuation of a trend that has been underway since the 2000 election.
Eight years ago, Americans under the age of 30 were almost indistinguishable from their elders in their candidate preferences. According to the 2000 national exit poll, Al Gore received 51 percent of the vote among those under the age of 30 versus 50 percent among those 30 and older. By 2004, however, a generation gap was evident. The national exit poll showed John Kerry receiving 54 percent of the under-30 vote versus 47 percent among those 30 and older. In congressional races in 2006, the gap was slightly larger. According to the national exit poll, Democratic House candidates received 61 percent of the 18-29 vote versus 53 percent among their elders.
The increasingly Democratic voting tendencies of younger Americans have been accompanied by a shift in their party loyalties. According to the exit poll data, the percentage of voters under the age of 30 identifying with the Democratic Party rose from 39 percent in 2000 to 43 percent in 2006, while the percentage identifying with the Republican Party fell from 37 percent in 2000 to 31 percent in 2006....