Marc Ambinder: Why 2010 Won't Be Like 1994
As president-elect Barack Obama begins to hash out their agenda, Republicans are predicting Democratic overreach and pointing back to the example of 1994.
But 2010 isn't 1994.
Consider: Bill Clinton had no experience working with the House and Senate; he had to learn on the job and made some early mistakes in this regard. Obama, on the other hand, has a working knowledge of the legislative process, and has a whole host of allies within the Democratic caucus.
In 1994, the realignment of the Southern states, which had happened on the presidential level in 1980, finally broke through on the Congressional level. The trends now are moving the other direction, with moderate Republicans in blue states being replaced by Democrats. (See: Shays, Christopher).
The Clinton White House lost the PR battle against Newt's army and "Harry and Louise". It's hard (though not by any means impossible) to imagine the Obama communications department being similarly outmaneuvered, considering what we've seen from both sides in the current cycle.
More likely, if and when President Obama attempts to pass big-ticket items, the PR offensive coming from the White House on will be on the "shock and awe" side of overwhelming, if the recent campaign is any guide.
Bill Clinton was elected with 43% of the vote. Obama's share of the popular vote is 53%, a clear majority. Psychologically, this matters a great deal to both sides and to the media.
Read entire article at http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com (blog)
But 2010 isn't 1994.
Consider: Bill Clinton had no experience working with the House and Senate; he had to learn on the job and made some early mistakes in this regard. Obama, on the other hand, has a working knowledge of the legislative process, and has a whole host of allies within the Democratic caucus.
In 1994, the realignment of the Southern states, which had happened on the presidential level in 1980, finally broke through on the Congressional level. The trends now are moving the other direction, with moderate Republicans in blue states being replaced by Democrats. (See: Shays, Christopher).
The Clinton White House lost the PR battle against Newt's army and "Harry and Louise". It's hard (though not by any means impossible) to imagine the Obama communications department being similarly outmaneuvered, considering what we've seen from both sides in the current cycle.
More likely, if and when President Obama attempts to pass big-ticket items, the PR offensive coming from the White House on will be on the "shock and awe" side of overwhelming, if the recent campaign is any guide.
Bill Clinton was elected with 43% of the vote. Obama's share of the popular vote is 53%, a clear majority. Psychologically, this matters a great deal to both sides and to the media.