Considerations On Whether Bush Will Get A Second Term

Like second marriages, second presidential terms represent the triumph of hope over experience. Every incumbent since Herbert Hoover has sought re-election. And yet, after the experience of their predecessors, it is easy to wonder why they bother.

Bill Clinton was impeached in his second term. Richard Nixon would have been if he had not quit first. Ronald Reagan was crippled by the Iran- Contra scandal. Lyndon Johnson sank into the swamp of Vietnam.

Dwight Eisenhower had health problems and Sputnik. The high point of Harry Truman's second term was the day he won it in a stunning upset. Woodrow Wilson suffered through the first world war, the rejection of the League of Nations and a stroke. Even Franklin D. Roosevelt reached his lowest point during his second term, when Congress blocked his plan to stack the Supreme Court.

This is the fraternity George W. Bush is desperately fighting to join as the Republicans convene for their national convention in New York. It is human nature to seek validation for your work. But (re-)election day is often the best day for a two-term president.

Most re-elected presidents manage at least some important achievements. President Clinton balanced the budget and reduced the national debt. Reagan simplified the tax code and pursued a rapprochement with Mikhail Gorbachev. Johnson accomplished plenty after re-election. But his triumphs almost all came within months of the landslide victory he won less than a year after the assassination of John F. Kennedy. After that, Congress balked.

But historians agree that almost all presidents enjoyed their second term much less than their first. James Madison was burned out of the White House by the British. Even George Washington faced criticisms that, he wrote," could scarcely be applied to a Nero, a notorious defaulter, or even to a common pickpocket".

Why have so many second terms come to grief? Presidents become arrogant (Wilson, Roosevelt). Or they run out of ideas (Eisenhower, Reagan). Many of the believers who helped lift them to Washington leave for cushier or grander roles. One day the president looks around the Oval Office and does not recognise a single face in the room.

Mostly, the odds catch up with re-elected presidents. The economy slows. International tensions rise. Appointees misbehave (see Truman). The president misbehaves (Nixon, Clinton). Policies launched during the first term inevitably spring leaks. Voters begin grumbling for change.

Experience and common sense suggest that second-term presidents, like second-time spouses, have a better chance of success with clear goals and expectations. Ambition, of course, can be stretched too far: over-reaching has disrupted several second terms. But the more common problem has been drift.