Alan Abramowitz: The Obama Generation ... Celebrity Worshippers or Responsible Citizens?
[Dr. Alan Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University, and the author of Voice of the People: Elections and Voting Behavior in the United States (2004, McGraw-Hill). He can be contacted via email at polsaa@emory.edu.]
Americans under the age of 30 played a major role in the election of Barack Obama as the 44th President of the United States. According to the 2008 national exit poll, 18-29 year-olds made up 18 percent of the electorate and they cast 66 percent of their votes for Obama vs. 32 percent for his Republican rival, John McCain. Based on the exit poll results, we can estimate that of the 132 million Americans who voted in 2008, almost 24 million were under the age of 30 and they provided Barack Obama with a plurality of more than 8 million votes out of his overall plurality of 9.5 million votes. Obama's margin of victory among 18-29 year-old voters was the largest for any presidential candidate since at least 1964. Moreover, the 13 point difference between Obama's 66 percent vote share among 18-29 year-olds and his 53 percent overall vote share was the largest for any presidential candidate since the advent of national exit polls in 1972.
The question raised by these results, of course, is why Barack Obama did so well among young Americans and what his huge margin among this group of voters might mean for the future of American politics. Was this outpouring of support a reflection, as some political commentators have argued, of Mr. Obama's personality, style and celebrity status or did it have deeper roots?
In this article I present evidence from the 2008 American National Election Study that support for Barack Obama by younger Americans was not based primarily on Mr. Obama's personality, style or celebrity status. To a greater extent than among older voters, support for Obama among voters under the age of 30 was based on issues and ideology. The main reason so many young people were attracted to Barack Obama's candidacy was because of his ideas.
The Emergence of a Distinctive Youth Vote
As recently as 2000, there was little evidence of a distinctive youth vote in the United States. The data displayed in Table 1 shows that in that year there was little difference between the candidate choices of younger and older voters. By 2004, however, a significant generation gap had emerged-voters under the age of 30 were seven points more Democratic than older voters in their House vote choices and eight points more Democratic in their presidential vote choices. The gap was about the same in the 2006 midterm elections but by 2008 it had expanded to 12 points in the House elections and 16 points in the presidential election. In eight years, the Democratic share of the presidential vote had increased by 15 points among 18-29 year-old voters but by only one point among older voters while the Democratic share of the House vote had increased by 12 points among 18-29 year-olds but by only two points among older voters. A distinctive youth vote had emerged....
Read entire article at Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball newsletter
Americans under the age of 30 played a major role in the election of Barack Obama as the 44th President of the United States. According to the 2008 national exit poll, 18-29 year-olds made up 18 percent of the electorate and they cast 66 percent of their votes for Obama vs. 32 percent for his Republican rival, John McCain. Based on the exit poll results, we can estimate that of the 132 million Americans who voted in 2008, almost 24 million were under the age of 30 and they provided Barack Obama with a plurality of more than 8 million votes out of his overall plurality of 9.5 million votes. Obama's margin of victory among 18-29 year-old voters was the largest for any presidential candidate since at least 1964. Moreover, the 13 point difference between Obama's 66 percent vote share among 18-29 year-olds and his 53 percent overall vote share was the largest for any presidential candidate since the advent of national exit polls in 1972.
The question raised by these results, of course, is why Barack Obama did so well among young Americans and what his huge margin among this group of voters might mean for the future of American politics. Was this outpouring of support a reflection, as some political commentators have argued, of Mr. Obama's personality, style and celebrity status or did it have deeper roots?
In this article I present evidence from the 2008 American National Election Study that support for Barack Obama by younger Americans was not based primarily on Mr. Obama's personality, style or celebrity status. To a greater extent than among older voters, support for Obama among voters under the age of 30 was based on issues and ideology. The main reason so many young people were attracted to Barack Obama's candidacy was because of his ideas.
The Emergence of a Distinctive Youth Vote
As recently as 2000, there was little evidence of a distinctive youth vote in the United States. The data displayed in Table 1 shows that in that year there was little difference between the candidate choices of younger and older voters. By 2004, however, a significant generation gap had emerged-voters under the age of 30 were seven points more Democratic than older voters in their House vote choices and eight points more Democratic in their presidential vote choices. The gap was about the same in the 2006 midterm elections but by 2008 it had expanded to 12 points in the House elections and 16 points in the presidential election. In eight years, the Democratic share of the presidential vote had increased by 15 points among 18-29 year-old voters but by only one point among older voters while the Democratic share of the House vote had increased by 12 points among 18-29 year-olds but by only two points among older voters. A distinctive youth vote had emerged....