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Marc Sandalow: Proof that 2nd Term Presidents Are Handicapped

Marc Sandalow, in the SF Chronicle (2-6-05):

... As historians look to modern presidents, there are limited examples of second-term success stories.

"What's most characteristic is that events control these guys, rather than these guys controlling events," said presidential historian Robert Dallek, the author of biographies of Presidents John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson. "Their great rhetoric doesn't necessarily put them on the path to great achievements."

Much has been written about the second-term scandals that have derailed presidential agendas, from Watergate and Iran-Contra, to Monica Lewinsky. Yet the disappointments can't all be attributed to impropriety. Scholars speculate that the hubris that accompanies re-election may encourage presidents to overreach.

Franklin Roosevelt, emboldened by his re-election, proposed a constitutional amendment to allow him to pack the Supreme Court and greatly expand his influence on the federal bench, warning "we could not afford to take the risk of another Great Depression."...

"The items you have on your agenda in the second term are leftovers. By their nature, they are very difficult to pass," said Martha Joynt Kumar, a professor of political science at Towson University in Maryland.

Kumar has looked at the legislative accomplishments of four modern presidents who were elected after 1951, when the 22nd Amendment limited terms and ushered in an era of lame-duck presidents.

The results are striking. In the first two years of his presidency, Dwight Eisenhower's legislative success rate was 86 percent. During his final two years in office, it was 59 percent. For Ronald Reagan, the number dropped from 77 percent in his first term, to 45 percent in his second. Taken as a whole, Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan and Clinton passed 81 percent of their legislation during their first two years in office and just 51 percent in their final two years....

"We've been through these kind of questions before," the president said at a news conference Jan. 26, recalling doubts about his tax cuts, and other things. "And so I am heartened by past experiences to believe that it is possible to do big things in Washington, D.C."

Indeed, second terms have seen some significant achievements. Reagan passed a comprehensive tax overhaul and a historic nuclear arms treaty with the Soviet Union after his re-election. Clinton presided over balanced budgets and a growing economy despite his impeachment.

Yet history suggests that second-term presidents' "ability to put across their agenda proves to be much less than what they would hope," Dallek said. "They don't have the kind of political clout they do when they are going to run again. It's just the rhythm of America politics."...