Nancy L. Cohen: 2010 as 1994? Relax, Democrats
[Nancy L. Cohen is a historian and the author of "The Reconstruction of American Liberalism, 1865-1914" and "The Social History of the United States: The 1990s."]
Two Democratic senators and one governor announced their retirements earlier this month, and days later, the smart money has Ted Kennedy's Massachusetts Senate seat falling to the GOP for the first time in nearly 60 years. Suddenly, the Republicans are crowing and Democrats are trembling -- everyone says the Democratic Party is doomed in 2010.
What is the source of this breathless hysteria? Memories of the 1994 Republican midterm landslide. But everyone should take a deep breath: The 2010 midterms will not be a repeat of 1994. Why? Because almost everything we think we know about the 1994 election is wrong....
According to received wisdom, the Contract with America -- the agenda the GOP ran on -- capitalized on widespread discontent with Clinton and the Democratic Party and articulated a conservative vision that resonated with Americans. Newt Gingrich, soon to be speaker of the House and the putative architect of the rout, boasted, "We have a clear mandate, and we intend to be revolutionaries." Never mind that only 39% of voters showed up for the supposed referendum on the state of the nation....
If the GOP landslide wasn't due to Gingrich's Contract with America, nor to the votes of disaffected, populist white men, what did happen in 1994? A different set of trends altogether: the unexpected rise of the Christian right and the move of white Southerners into the GOP....
Neither evangelicals nor white Southerners can swing this year's election, because they *are* the Republican Party.
Tea-party activists do share the ideological intensity of some GOP voters of 1994. But they are neither new voters, like 1994's evangelicals, nor are they party switchers, like 1994's white Southerners. There is no good evidence -- in surveys or reporting -- that they are anything other than disaffected conservatives who have previously voted Republican. At this moment, the odds are better that they'll split the GOP than that they'll sweep the Democrats out of power.
Historical patterns will allow the GOP to pick up seats this year. The out-of-power "base" will be more enthusiastic. The demographics of traditionally low-turnout midterms will favor the GOP. Democrats must defend more seats and will be held responsible for any problems in the country come election day. In 2010, Democrats will lose some seats, as have all but three incumbent parties in midterm elections since the New Deal. But the demographics are clear: 1994 won't repeat itself.
Read entire article at LA Times
Two Democratic senators and one governor announced their retirements earlier this month, and days later, the smart money has Ted Kennedy's Massachusetts Senate seat falling to the GOP for the first time in nearly 60 years. Suddenly, the Republicans are crowing and Democrats are trembling -- everyone says the Democratic Party is doomed in 2010.
What is the source of this breathless hysteria? Memories of the 1994 Republican midterm landslide. But everyone should take a deep breath: The 2010 midterms will not be a repeat of 1994. Why? Because almost everything we think we know about the 1994 election is wrong....
According to received wisdom, the Contract with America -- the agenda the GOP ran on -- capitalized on widespread discontent with Clinton and the Democratic Party and articulated a conservative vision that resonated with Americans. Newt Gingrich, soon to be speaker of the House and the putative architect of the rout, boasted, "We have a clear mandate, and we intend to be revolutionaries." Never mind that only 39% of voters showed up for the supposed referendum on the state of the nation....
If the GOP landslide wasn't due to Gingrich's Contract with America, nor to the votes of disaffected, populist white men, what did happen in 1994? A different set of trends altogether: the unexpected rise of the Christian right and the move of white Southerners into the GOP....
Neither evangelicals nor white Southerners can swing this year's election, because they *are* the Republican Party.
Tea-party activists do share the ideological intensity of some GOP voters of 1994. But they are neither new voters, like 1994's evangelicals, nor are they party switchers, like 1994's white Southerners. There is no good evidence -- in surveys or reporting -- that they are anything other than disaffected conservatives who have previously voted Republican. At this moment, the odds are better that they'll split the GOP than that they'll sweep the Democrats out of power.
Historical patterns will allow the GOP to pick up seats this year. The out-of-power "base" will be more enthusiastic. The demographics of traditionally low-turnout midterms will favor the GOP. Democrats must defend more seats and will be held responsible for any problems in the country come election day. In 2010, Democrats will lose some seats, as have all but three incumbent parties in midterm elections since the New Deal. But the demographics are clear: 1994 won't repeat itself.