Julian Zelizer: Bad Midterms Not Always Bad for White House
[Julian Zelizer, a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School, is the author of “Arsenal of Democracy: The Politics of National Security — From World War II to the War on Terrorism.”]
...Two years after conservatives welcomed the “Reagan Revolution,” Democrats had a net gain of 26 seats in the House. House Speaker Tip O’Neill had nationalized the midterm elections, focusing on “fairness” and railing against Reagan’s domestic policies. Democrats argued that tax cuts and interest rate hikes had produced the 10 percent unemployment rate.
Two years later, Democrats were not celebrating. Reagan won a landslide reelection victory over Democratic challenger Walter Mondale — winning 525 electoral votes and 58 percent of the popular vote. Mondale won only Minnesota, his home state, and the District of Columbia.
“You ain’t seen nothing yet,” Reagan told his supporters on election night.
Several factors accounted for Reagan’s victory — all relevant to Obama this year.
The first was economic recovery. By 1984, the economy had rebounded from the recession. Democrats had blamed Reagan for the recession in 1982; the president claimed responsibility for recovery. The Democrats, who had opposed many of his policies, appeared as if they had missed the boat....
The situation could be the same for Obama by 2012. Though unemployment remains high, many leading economic indicators are beginning to point toward recovery. If enough Americans feel greater economic stability in two years, Obama will be able to boast that his policies produced the results — even as the GOP opposed him every step of the way....
Nor is Reagan an isolated case. Other presidents, including Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956 and Bill Clinton in 1996, coasted to landslide victories after brutal midterms.
As he plans what to do in the coming years, Obama should look back to Reagan and other presidents for examples of how to turn a crushing defeat into a launching pad for victory.
Read entire article at Politico
...Two years after conservatives welcomed the “Reagan Revolution,” Democrats had a net gain of 26 seats in the House. House Speaker Tip O’Neill had nationalized the midterm elections, focusing on “fairness” and railing against Reagan’s domestic policies. Democrats argued that tax cuts and interest rate hikes had produced the 10 percent unemployment rate.
Two years later, Democrats were not celebrating. Reagan won a landslide reelection victory over Democratic challenger Walter Mondale — winning 525 electoral votes and 58 percent of the popular vote. Mondale won only Minnesota, his home state, and the District of Columbia.
“You ain’t seen nothing yet,” Reagan told his supporters on election night.
Several factors accounted for Reagan’s victory — all relevant to Obama this year.
The first was economic recovery. By 1984, the economy had rebounded from the recession. Democrats had blamed Reagan for the recession in 1982; the president claimed responsibility for recovery. The Democrats, who had opposed many of his policies, appeared as if they had missed the boat....
The situation could be the same for Obama by 2012. Though unemployment remains high, many leading economic indicators are beginning to point toward recovery. If enough Americans feel greater economic stability in two years, Obama will be able to boast that his policies produced the results — even as the GOP opposed him every step of the way....
Nor is Reagan an isolated case. Other presidents, including Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956 and Bill Clinton in 1996, coasted to landslide victories after brutal midterms.
As he plans what to do in the coming years, Obama should look back to Reagan and other presidents for examples of how to turn a crushing defeat into a launching pad for victory.