Andrei Lankov: Son Rising for a Post Dear Leader Era
[Andrei Lankov is an associate professor at Kookmin University in Seoul, and adjunct research fellow at the Research School of Pacifica and Asian Studies, Australian National University. He graduated from Leningrad State University with a PhD in Far Eastern history and China, with emphasis on Korea. He has published books and articles on Korea and North Asia.]
A few days ago, a new session of the Supreme People's Assembly - North Korea's rubber-stamp parliament - was convened in Pyongyang. In most cases, such sessions do not attract much attention outside a tiny circle of the full-time Pyongyang watchers: few people would be excited by the sight of monotonously and tastelessly dressed men and women sitting in rows and raising their hands to signal their unanimous approval of the laws and resolutions that - as everybody understands - seldom bear any relation to reality....
A few days earlier, on June 3, the official North Korean wire agency reported that one day before, Yi Che-kang, the first deputy chairman of the ruling Korean Workers' Party, had been killed in a traffic accident. The victim of a car crash was, formally speaking, second only to Dear Leader Kim Jong-il in the party hierarchy.
This news had to be suspicious: North Korea's traffic is arguably the thinnest in Asia, but the country has a long tradition of traffic incidents taking the lives of high officials. The first such incidents occurred in the early 1970s, during the transition of power from the country's founding father Kim Il-sung to his son....
The events of the past week allow us to surmise how the power structure of North Korea will look like in the first years after Kim Jong-il's death. It seems that North Korean political heavyweights have finally begun to prepare for the unthinkable - the demise of the Dear Leader.
The choice of Kim Jong-un as a heir designate serves, above all, the interests of the North Korean elite, so one can even suspect that the choice was somehow pushed on Kim Jong-il by his entourage. The "Young General" really is young, being merely 27 or 28 years old. Even North Korean propaganda mongers find this embarrassing, so they insist General Kim is in his early 30s.
The choice of such an exceptionally young candidate serves, above all, the interests of the old guard, Kim Jong-il's own entourage. A young crown prince has no power base and no allies. Thus, even if he technically becomes the supreme leader, he will have no choice but to follow the advice of his father's entourage, that is, people who are running the country now. He is doomed to become a puppet - at least for some while.
However, a weak crown prince will require an able prince regent. For the past few years, most Pyongyang watchers agreed that the most likely candidate to take such a position is Jang Song-taek, a brother-in-law of Kim Jong-il....
The car incident that killed Yi Che-kang was also timely for Jang Song-taek. Yi was widely believed to be a rival of Jang. Now, with Yi dead, Jang seems to have no serious rivals left. The recent assembly session also appointed a new head of the North Korean cabinet. In North Korea, the prime minister is essentially a top technocrat, but it is still significant that this position went to Choe Yong-rim, who is rumored to be close to Jang....
...[W]hatever happens, the first days of June saw the contours of post-Kim Jong-il North Korea emerge.
Read entire article at Asia Times
A few days ago, a new session of the Supreme People's Assembly - North Korea's rubber-stamp parliament - was convened in Pyongyang. In most cases, such sessions do not attract much attention outside a tiny circle of the full-time Pyongyang watchers: few people would be excited by the sight of monotonously and tastelessly dressed men and women sitting in rows and raising their hands to signal their unanimous approval of the laws and resolutions that - as everybody understands - seldom bear any relation to reality....
A few days earlier, on June 3, the official North Korean wire agency reported that one day before, Yi Che-kang, the first deputy chairman of the ruling Korean Workers' Party, had been killed in a traffic accident. The victim of a car crash was, formally speaking, second only to Dear Leader Kim Jong-il in the party hierarchy.
This news had to be suspicious: North Korea's traffic is arguably the thinnest in Asia, but the country has a long tradition of traffic incidents taking the lives of high officials. The first such incidents occurred in the early 1970s, during the transition of power from the country's founding father Kim Il-sung to his son....
The events of the past week allow us to surmise how the power structure of North Korea will look like in the first years after Kim Jong-il's death. It seems that North Korean political heavyweights have finally begun to prepare for the unthinkable - the demise of the Dear Leader.
The choice of Kim Jong-un as a heir designate serves, above all, the interests of the North Korean elite, so one can even suspect that the choice was somehow pushed on Kim Jong-il by his entourage. The "Young General" really is young, being merely 27 or 28 years old. Even North Korean propaganda mongers find this embarrassing, so they insist General Kim is in his early 30s.
The choice of such an exceptionally young candidate serves, above all, the interests of the old guard, Kim Jong-il's own entourage. A young crown prince has no power base and no allies. Thus, even if he technically becomes the supreme leader, he will have no choice but to follow the advice of his father's entourage, that is, people who are running the country now. He is doomed to become a puppet - at least for some while.
However, a weak crown prince will require an able prince regent. For the past few years, most Pyongyang watchers agreed that the most likely candidate to take such a position is Jang Song-taek, a brother-in-law of Kim Jong-il....
The car incident that killed Yi Che-kang was also timely for Jang Song-taek. Yi was widely believed to be a rival of Jang. Now, with Yi dead, Jang seems to have no serious rivals left. The recent assembly session also appointed a new head of the North Korean cabinet. In North Korea, the prime minister is essentially a top technocrat, but it is still significant that this position went to Choe Yong-rim, who is rumored to be close to Jang....
...[W]hatever happens, the first days of June saw the contours of post-Kim Jong-il North Korea emerge.