Walter Russell Mead: The Revolution Wanders From The Script
[Walter Russell Mead is Henry A. Kissinger senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of Special Providence: American Foreign Policy and How It Changed the World. He blogs at The-American-Interest.com.]
The Egyptian government has survived the first crisis of the revolution and both the government and the protesters are moving to a new trial of strength. Surviving the first blast of popular fury — and of international criticism — is an important milestone for the government. The longer it can hold out, the more likely it is that the core power centers of the Egyptian regime — the ‘deep state’ as the Turks say — will survive the Mubarak era and dominate the country for some time to come.
I am not sure what to wish for. The current Egyptian system in many ways has overstayed its welcome and the economic, political and social development of the country has been seriously affected. Revolutions, though, however thoroughly justified, have their drawbacks. Both the major revolutions of the English speaking world, the Glorious Revolution of 1688 and the American Revolution of 1776, ended unusually well. Those revolutions, however, were the exception that proves the rule. The outcome of other revolutions has been less unambiguously good.
The French Revolution, for example, quickly degenerated into the Reign of Terror and culminated in the military dictatorship of the “Emperor” Napoleon and a generation of brutal war. The liberals of the February Revolution in Russia lost out to the mindlessly bloody and destructive Bolsheviks ten months later, and Russia plunged into an unspeakable civil war and the genocidal horrors of Leninist/Stalinist rule. China’s revolutionary communists killed scores of millions of people through their grotesque mixture of brutality, fanaticism and incompetence. The clergy of Iran turned on their allies, leading the country into the horrifying and pointless war with Iraq and establishing a regime worse than anything the Shah could have dreamed of.
I do not know what will happen in Egypt; no one does. Most revolutions do not go on to the radical stage; they fail at an earlier era. If the forces of order withstand the first dramatic assaults, they are often well positioned to grind their enemies down. The Revolution of 1848 failed almost everywhere in Europe — except in France when it brought in another dictatorship and another Napoleon....
Read entire article at The American Interest (Blog)
The Egyptian government has survived the first crisis of the revolution and both the government and the protesters are moving to a new trial of strength. Surviving the first blast of popular fury — and of international criticism — is an important milestone for the government. The longer it can hold out, the more likely it is that the core power centers of the Egyptian regime — the ‘deep state’ as the Turks say — will survive the Mubarak era and dominate the country for some time to come.
I am not sure what to wish for. The current Egyptian system in many ways has overstayed its welcome and the economic, political and social development of the country has been seriously affected. Revolutions, though, however thoroughly justified, have their drawbacks. Both the major revolutions of the English speaking world, the Glorious Revolution of 1688 and the American Revolution of 1776, ended unusually well. Those revolutions, however, were the exception that proves the rule. The outcome of other revolutions has been less unambiguously good.
The French Revolution, for example, quickly degenerated into the Reign of Terror and culminated in the military dictatorship of the “Emperor” Napoleon and a generation of brutal war. The liberals of the February Revolution in Russia lost out to the mindlessly bloody and destructive Bolsheviks ten months later, and Russia plunged into an unspeakable civil war and the genocidal horrors of Leninist/Stalinist rule. China’s revolutionary communists killed scores of millions of people through their grotesque mixture of brutality, fanaticism and incompetence. The clergy of Iran turned on their allies, leading the country into the horrifying and pointless war with Iraq and establishing a regime worse than anything the Shah could have dreamed of.
I do not know what will happen in Egypt; no one does. Most revolutions do not go on to the radical stage; they fail at an earlier era. If the forces of order withstand the first dramatic assaults, they are often well positioned to grind their enemies down. The Revolution of 1848 failed almost everywhere in Europe — except in France when it brought in another dictatorship and another Napoleon....