Mark Moyar: The Kings We Crown
UNTIL very recently, no one would have predicted that Barack Obama would be forcing foreign leaders from power with greater regularity than George W. Bush. The president maintains that the United States is not playing kingmaker, but is merely enabling people to choose their leaders. But history indicates that the president’s choice of a provisional leader may have a much greater impact on a country’s political future than the desires of its people.
Nowadays, the United States has great influence when it comes to selecting who rules between the collapse of an authoritarian regime and the holding of elections. American support put Mohamed Hussein Tantawi in charge of Egypt’s provisional government in February. Libya’s National Transitional Council and Yemen’s Vice President Abd al-Rab Mansur al-Hadi are most likely next.
Unfortunately, we have repeatedly ruined transitions to democracy by backing provisional leaders who broke promises to govern virtuously and instead focused on staying in power and silencing their political opponents. Isaias Afwerki, whom Washington endorsed as head of Eritrea’s provisional government in 1991, went on to stifle dissent and obstruct democracy with such efficiency that he remains in power 20 years later. In 1999, the West supported Hashim Thaci as interim head of an autonomous Kosovo, only to watch him engage in ethnic cleansing and exploit his newfound power and prestige to win election as prime minister in 2008.
The Iraqi election of 2005 brought to power Ibrahim al-Jaafari, who combined ineptitude in governance with brutal persecution of Sunnis. His behavior proved so harmful that the Bush administration pushed him out. And the countries that anointed Hamid Karzai head of a provisional Afghan government in 2001 now deplore his 10-year-old regime for electoral fraud and corruption.
The danger of a perpetual provisional government has already surfaced in Egypt. Last week, protesters demanded the resignation of Mr. Tantawi, their onetime ally, after he rounded up political dissenters. The same danger lurks in Yemen with Mr. Hadi, who spent decades as a senior aide to an authoritarian ruler. ...