Juan Cole: Was there a Yemeni Revolution?

Juan Cole is Richard P. Mitchell Collegiate Professor of History at the University of Michigan. For three decades, he has sought to put the relationship of the West and the Muslim world in historical context. His most recent book is Engaging the Muslim World (Palgrave Macmillan, March, 2009) and he also recently authored Napoleon’s Egypt: Invading the Middle East (Palgrave Macmillan, 2007).

Aljazeera Arabic is reporting that later in the day Sunday, clashes between armed groups of pro-Saleh and anti-Saleh gunmen broke out in the capital, where the situation is “unstable,” after Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh flew to Saudi Arabia for medical treatment late Saturday.

The Yemeni press says that most shops in the capital were closed out of fear of insecurity and lack of electricity. Gold and silver shops had hidden their merchandise, and where they opened (not only in Sanaa but also in some other cities), their shelves were empty and they were only taking orders. Used car dealerships also appear to have warehoused their cars, and their lots are empty.

Some small crowds of joyous protesters had braved the otherwise deserted streets of Sanaa and other cities on Sunday morning. The protesters, most from the youth movement that has spearheaded the attempt to overthrow Saleh’s regime, chanted “Liberty, liberty, this is the festival of liberty!” and “A New Yemen!” and “The Regime has fallen!”

Yemen is the poorest of 22 Arab League states, and sits astride the mouth of the Red Sea, through which about ten percent of world trade flows. Its port of Aden is also important to Arabian Sea trade. Yemeni instability that spilled over onto neighboring Saudi Arabia could have a significant impact on petroleum prices. A small al-Qaeda cell operates in Yemen, and Muslim radicals are said to have taken advantage of the instability to take control of the small city of Zinjibar, where 10 Yemeni troops were killed on Sunday...