Vladimir Pastukhov: Vladimir Putin ... His Place in History

Vladimir Pastukhov is visiting fellow at St Anthony's College, Oxford and advisor to the Chairman of the Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation.

Twenty years ago I made my ‘debut’ as Russian political commentator with a text on Russia’s democracy movement.  My conclusion, written in October 1991, read as follows: 

‘There were times — and to some extent this is still the case today — when the democratic movement was showered with accolades that were not always fully justified. And the time is not far off when public opinion will just as arbitrarily begin to regard this very movement as an outcast.  However, its role ought to be assessed in terms of specific historical events. At a specific stage of Russia’s development, the movement faced very specific tasks and having successfully completed them, it reached the pinnacles of power. Nobody should have expected it to deliver what it was not, by definition, able to deliver. This movement did not have the potential to become the organizing force of civil society. Russia today faces different challenges and the movement has been forced to retreat from the political stage. We ought to accept this fact calmly.’  (Pastukhov, V. ‘Russia’s democracy movement: the path to power’. Polis, 1992, No. 1-2, p. 16).

Now that the political cycle initiated by perestroika is in decline, the lines I wrote twenty years ago about the democracy movement can be repeated verbatim in relation to its ‘last hero’, Vladimir Putin. There had been times — and to some extent this is still the case today — when Putin was showered with accolades that were not always fully justified. And the time is not far off, when public opinion will regard him as an outcast. However, the role he played in Russian history has to be assessed in terms of specific historical events. When he rose to power he faced very specific historical tasks, and he completed them more or less successfully. He can’t be expected to deliver what he is not, by definition, capable of delivering. He was not the organising force of Russia’s new statehood. Russia today faces different challenges and Putin will be forced to retreat from the political stage.  We ought to accept this fact calmly.

Calm acceptance — it is hard to think of a less apposite idea these days. What I am going to say is not likely to please either Putin’s supporters or his opponents. It might seem quite strange to be contemplating the departure from politics of a man who seems intent on establishing himself in politics forever. But I’m not claiming that Putin will leave tomorrow, just as the democracy movement didn’t suddenly dissolve into thin air in 1992.  It’s just that a few years mean a long time for an individual but they mean nothing in terms of history. What matters is not the number of years but the trend…