Mark N. Katz: Withdrawal, Not Defeat

Many have warned that after the U.S. withdrawals from Iraq and Afghanistan, American-backed efforts to foster democratic government in both are likely to fail and Islamist radicals are likely to seize control of significant portions—if not all—of both countries. Meanwhile, some neighboring states hostile to American interests—especially Iran and Pakistan—are likely to take advantage of the situation. U.S. withdrawal from these two conflicts after sacrificing so many lives and spending so much money without achieving victory cannot help but encourage Islamist and other radicals elsewhere, as well as weaken America’s standing in the world. Yet for Washington to recommit the U.S. military in either conflict is untenable both politically and economically—not just for the Obama administration but even for a future Republican one.

So what is likely to happen following the U.S. withdrawals from Iraq and Afghanistan?

The position that the United States finds itself in today is reminiscent of the position it was in during the early 1970s. Back then, the country had become bogged down militarily not only in South Vietnam but also in Laos and Cambodia. The war effort had become highly unpopular both at home and in many countries throughout the world. Still, many warned that an American military withdrawal from Indochina would lead to negative consequences for the United States and for America’s standing in the world more generally....