Will Obama win in this economy? History says maybe not

Even though President Obama is favored to be reelected in the fall, a quick look back at economic and electoral history reveals just how much the odds are stacked against the White House amid the lackluster recovery.

According to Barclays (BCS), key economic metrics including unemployment, gross domestic product growth, consumer confidence and capital spending are currently substantially weaker than the average for winning incumbent presidents in reelections since 1948.

Even a seemingly positive measure, the 20% year-over-year jump in the S&P 500, fits more into the historical storyline of an incumbent about to be denied another four years by the voters than one on the cusp of reelection....