Fred Barnes: President Bush had a rough summer. That doesn't mean he's in for a fall.
This summer hasn't been kind to President Bush. Persistent terrorism in Iraq continued to drive up the toll of American dead. The media transformed Cindy Sheehan, the mother of a slain soldier, into an anti-Bush celebrity. On top of soaring gas prices, devastation from Hurricane Katrina gave the president a huge, new crisis and a deluge of criticism to deal with. Naturally, his job approval rating, measured relentlessly in polls, sank to a new low.
Yet two things remain true about the Bush presidency.
Mr. Bush knows how to win elections. And he knows how to drive his agenda, especially in Congress. Last winter, bills curbing class-action lawsuits and reforming bankruptcy law--both favorites of Mr. Bush--were enacted. Then, during a two-week span in July and August, he won congressional approval of the controversial Central America Free Trade Agreement, overdue energy legislation and a highway bill slimmed down to meet his specifications. The day Cafta passed, thanks to aggressive lobbying by Mr. Bush himself, his job rating was at 44% in the Gallup Poll, the lowest point of his presidency.
Now, as Congress returns for its fall session, Mr. Bush has reason to feel burdened but still optimistic. He's been politically bruised by his administration's response to Katrina but hardly crippled. He promptly named the conservative he'd already nominated for the Supreme Court, John Roberts, to replace Chief Justice William Rehnquist, who died Saturday. Judge Roberts is likely to be confirmed in time for the court's opening day in October. That leaves the seat of Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, who resigned in June, still vacant. If the president follows his instincts, picks another conservative, and gains confirmation, he will have succeeded in tilting the ideological balance of the court to the right.
Meanwhile, prospects for eliminating or slashing the federal estate tax, or death tax, took a hit when Majority Leader Bill Frist postponed a vote so the Senate can concentrate on Katrina-related legislation. But the estate tax remains a ripe target. At the end of September, Mr. Bush's tax commission will recommend a tax reform plan that will allow him to embrace--or at least to elevate--the tax issue, always a winner for Republicans. And his proposal to bring immigrants to the United States as "guest workers" looks to win passage as part of a broader bill to curb illegal immigration.
Mr. Bush's management of the recovery from Katrina is a wild card. His critics--mostly Democrats, the media and Louisiana officials shifting the blame from their own shortcomings--accuse him of failing to respond with the urgency and strong presidential leadership he showed after 9/11. They're right. But Katrina, though a catastrophe, isn't 9/11. Louisiana and Mississippi weren't attacked by enemy forces. Americans break along normal partisan lines in judging Mr. Bush's performance in coping with Katrina, an ABC News poll found. Only a minority (44%) fault him personally. Even so, his approval rating may slip a bit.
But the simple fact of governing in Washington is that popularity is not a measure of power. In the late '90s, President Clinton's approval rating stayed well above 60%, even after he was impeached. But Mr. Clinton had almost no clout. True, this was partly because he faced a Republican Congress. A Bush aide was accurate (if self-serving) in drawing the distinction this way: "The difference is between polls in the 40s and changing history and being in the 60s and twiddling your thumbs. We'll take the 40s. That's our motto." ...
Read entire article at WSJ
Yet two things remain true about the Bush presidency.
Mr. Bush knows how to win elections. And he knows how to drive his agenda, especially in Congress. Last winter, bills curbing class-action lawsuits and reforming bankruptcy law--both favorites of Mr. Bush--were enacted. Then, during a two-week span in July and August, he won congressional approval of the controversial Central America Free Trade Agreement, overdue energy legislation and a highway bill slimmed down to meet his specifications. The day Cafta passed, thanks to aggressive lobbying by Mr. Bush himself, his job rating was at 44% in the Gallup Poll, the lowest point of his presidency.
Now, as Congress returns for its fall session, Mr. Bush has reason to feel burdened but still optimistic. He's been politically bruised by his administration's response to Katrina but hardly crippled. He promptly named the conservative he'd already nominated for the Supreme Court, John Roberts, to replace Chief Justice William Rehnquist, who died Saturday. Judge Roberts is likely to be confirmed in time for the court's opening day in October. That leaves the seat of Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, who resigned in June, still vacant. If the president follows his instincts, picks another conservative, and gains confirmation, he will have succeeded in tilting the ideological balance of the court to the right.
Meanwhile, prospects for eliminating or slashing the federal estate tax, or death tax, took a hit when Majority Leader Bill Frist postponed a vote so the Senate can concentrate on Katrina-related legislation. But the estate tax remains a ripe target. At the end of September, Mr. Bush's tax commission will recommend a tax reform plan that will allow him to embrace--or at least to elevate--the tax issue, always a winner for Republicans. And his proposal to bring immigrants to the United States as "guest workers" looks to win passage as part of a broader bill to curb illegal immigration.
Mr. Bush's management of the recovery from Katrina is a wild card. His critics--mostly Democrats, the media and Louisiana officials shifting the blame from their own shortcomings--accuse him of failing to respond with the urgency and strong presidential leadership he showed after 9/11. They're right. But Katrina, though a catastrophe, isn't 9/11. Louisiana and Mississippi weren't attacked by enemy forces. Americans break along normal partisan lines in judging Mr. Bush's performance in coping with Katrina, an ABC News poll found. Only a minority (44%) fault him personally. Even so, his approval rating may slip a bit.
But the simple fact of governing in Washington is that popularity is not a measure of power. In the late '90s, President Clinton's approval rating stayed well above 60%, even after he was impeached. But Mr. Clinton had almost no clout. True, this was partly because he faced a Republican Congress. A Bush aide was accurate (if self-serving) in drawing the distinction this way: "The difference is between polls in the 40s and changing history and being in the 60s and twiddling your thumbs. We'll take the 40s. That's our motto." ...