Arnold's No Reagan
Enticed by the opportunity to reap the Golden State's 55 electoral votes, these Republicans believe that controlling the governorship of California will help the president carry the nation's most populous state in the 2004 presidential contest. They also seem to feel that Schwarzenegger, like his actor-turned-governor predecessor Ronald Reagan, is the best man to lead this effort. They should be careful what they wish for.
Californians haven't supported a Republican presidential candidate since 1988, and in 2000 they voted overwhelmingly against George W. Bush. There is a tenuous relationship between a party's control of the California governorship and support for that party's presidential candidate. In the past seven presidential elections (dating back to 1976), Californians have supported the candidate of its governor's party only three times.
Counting on the similarities between Schwarzenegger's turn to politics and Ronald Reagan's durable career will likely be just as disappointing. By 1966, 14 years before he was elected to the presidency, Reagan had acquired political respect with his nationally televised speech for the Republican presidential candidate Barry Goldwater two years earlier.
The passionate address by the man most Americans knew as a B-movie actor served as a catalyst for the modern conservative movement. The Washington Post columnist David Broder described the speech as "the most successful political debut since William Jennings Bryan electrified the 1896 Democratic convention with his 'Cross of Gold' speech."
By 1964, Reagan had almost 20 years of political activism under his belt as he moved from New Deal Democrat to conservative hero after serving six terms as president of the Screen Actors Guild. Worries that he would encounter obstacles in pursuing elected office were largely dispelled when it became clear that the 55-year-old Reagan's emerging political profile and waning movie career made him less an actor than a former actor in the eyes of most Californians.
Although Schwarzenegger has campaigned for Republican presidential candidates, his most conspicuous political activity consisted of serving from 1990 to 1992 as chairman of President George H.W. Bush's Council for Physical Fitness and Sports. More recently he successfully advocated Proposition 49, a California ballot initiative designed to increase support for before-and after-school programs. Schwarzenegger's thin political resume‚ offers little clarity about his views on many key issues. These can be gleaned mostly from interviews in which he has broadly defined himself as a socially liberal but fiscally conservative Republican.
Despite his strong poll numbers, nothing Schwarzenegger has said so far conveys political gravity. The former bodybuilding champion announced his candidacy on "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno," promising to "pump up" Sacramento. Entering the race, he quipped, was a decision almost as difficult as "the one I made.to get a bikini wax."
In addition, the movie career of the 56-year-old Schwarzenegger is still going strong. His most recent film, this summer's Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines, has grossed $150 million. His election, drawing on an attraction to his celebrity status more than to his party affiliation, would certainly be that of a popular actor and political novice. And of course Schwarzenegger cannot be viewed as a presidential hopeful, because he was born outside the United States and is thus ineligible for the office.
As the truncated campaign for governor of California simultaneously accelerates and winds down, Schwarzenegger and his supporters, particularly those who see a strong link between his fortunes and those of President Bush in 2004, should realize that California is treacherous terrain for Republican presidential candidates, even if they have the backing of the state's governor. They should also understand that not all actors are created equal. Despite their surface similarities, Reagan was far more prepared to lead almost four decades ago than Schwarzenegger is today.
With history at best an uncertain ally, Republicans looking at California with a hopeful eye in next year's presidential election may have to pin their hopes for a successful Gov. Schwarzenegger on the words of Ronald Reagan himself. Near the end of his second term as president, Reagan was asked whether he had learned anything as an actor that was useful to him in the presidency. Displaying keen governing acumen gained from years of political engagement away from the stage, Reagan responded, "There have been times . . . when I have wondered how you could do the job if you hadn't been an actor."
This piece was distributed for non-exclusive use by the History News Service, an informal syndicate of professional historians who seek to improve the public's understanding of current events by setting these events in their historical contexts. The article may be republished as long as both the author and the History News Service are clearly credited.