Get Ready for California to Dominate Presidential Politics in 2020

by Ronald L. Feinman

Ronald L. Feinman is the author of Assassinations, Threats, and the American Presidency: From Andrew Jackson to Barack Obama (Rowman Littlefield Publishers, August 2015). A paperback edition is now available.

The upcoming presidential election campaign of 2020 may offer more potential candidates from a single state in our history.

That state is California, where 13 percent of the nation resides, a state which leads the resistance to Donald Trump on many issues, including the environment, immigration, civil rights, and civil liberties.

California has a wealth of talented politicians considered likely to pursue a presidential candidacy, and with the Golden State planning its primary on March 3, 2020, at the height of the pursuit of delegates rather than the traditional early June date at the end of the process, all candidates will have to zero in on California. Those candidates will know whoever gains the majority of the delegates in that state will have the upper hand for the nomination, although as now constituted, Texas, Virginia, North Carolina, and Massachusetts will have their primaries also on March 3, making for a massive Super Tuesday.

There are five potential state residents who might seek the Presidency. Trying to figure out which one on the list is favored is impossible to say at this point, and it could be that some of this group of five may not enter the race, or might drop out early, due to financial problems.

In order of likely candidacy, the first to be considered is Senator Kamala Harris, who is often termed by many observers as “the female Barack Obama,” due to the fact that she has a mixed race background like Obama: her mother is from India and her father from Jamaica. Her advantages include a long record of public service: District Attorney of San Francisco from 2004-2011; California Attorney General from 2011-2017; and the junior Senator from the Golden State for the past two years. Harris will be 56 years old at the time of the election.

Harris first came to national notice at the 2012 Democratic National Convention, when she delivered a well received speech against Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, and was considered a possible replacement choice after Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia died in February 2016. Fortunately for her, she was passed over for Merrick Garland, who was denied a chance to be considered by the Republican controlled Senate, and its leader, Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. Since her election to the Senate, Harris has been considered an early front runner for the nomination, with her solid progressive credentials, and her exceptional charisma and oratorical ability, reminding many of President Obama when he entered the presidential race in 2007, as Harris is likely to do in early 2019, both in their third year in the Senate.

The second person most likely to enter the race is Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, who would be 49 at the time of the 2020 presidential election. Garcetti has an interesting ethnic background: he is Jewish, Hispanic and has an Italian last name. He has had a long history of urban government experience, having served on the Los Angeles City Council since 2001; President of the City Council for six of those years; and was elected Mayor for his first term in 2013, and was reelected to a second term by a massive margin. Garcetti, who has a bachelors and masters from Columbia University in New York City, was a Rhodes Scholar at Oxford University in the United Kingdom, and also studied for a Ph. D. from the London School of Economics. Garcetti has the distinction of having served in the US Navy from 2005-2013 while on the LA City Council, in the Reserve Information Warfare Corps, making him that rare modern politician who has served in the military.

Garcetti has received several awards for his service, including one from the John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum. He has made visits to the early primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire during 2018, and seems like a candidate who intends to announce for President in the coming months. As mayor of the country’s second largest city, his candidacy would introduce a significant urban voice to the presidential campaign.

Another Californian who seems intent on running for President is Congressman Eric Swalwell, who has represented the 15th US House district, part of the Oakland-San Francisco metropolitan area, since January 2013, and who would be days short of the age of 40 on Election Day in 2020, making him the youngest potential President in history. Born in Iowa, Swalwell received his college degree and law degree at the University of Maryland, and endorsed Governor Martin O’Malley for President in 2015. But after graduating from law school, he settled in northern California, and became a member of a local city council before running for a House seat in 2012.

Swalwell has been an active and publicized member of the House Intelligence Committee and House Judiciary Committee in his six years in the House of Representatives, and has been seen often on cable news. He has been a major critic of the Trump Presidency. House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi gave Swalwell the position of Vice Chair of the Democratic Steering and Policy Committee in February 2016, elevating his role to a part of the House Democratic leadership. In 2018 he won attention for introducing a Journalist Protection Act as a response to Donald Trump’s attempted intimidation of journalists. Swalwell has been mentioned as a potential presidential candidate, a rarity for a House member with only six years of experience, and he has hinted that he will follow through in 2019 on a presidential announcement. He has already visited the early primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire.

Another potential candidate for the Presidency who calls California home is Tom Steyer, a billionaire hedge fund manager, who would be 63 years old at the time of the 2020 election. Steyer is also a philanthropist, environmentalist, liberal activist, and fundraiser. He has won attention in 2018 with his impeachment drive against Donald Trump. Steyer received a Bachelor’s degree from Yale University and an MBA from Stanford University, and while born in New York City, resides in San Francisco.

Although he’s never held elective office, Steyer has engaged in politics for the past 35 years, starting off as a fundraiser for Walter Mondale in 1983, and later for Bill Bradley in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004. An early supporter of Hillary Clinton in 2008, he ended up as a major fundraiser for Barack Obama, and was a Democratic National Convention delegate in 2004 and 2008. Steyer was considered for the post of Secretary of the Treasury in 2009, and Secretary of Energy in 2013, but both times was passed over. However, he gave a speech at the 2012 Democratic National Convention focused on the need to move away from fossil fuels. He formed NextGen America in 2013, an environmental advocacy nonprofit and political action committee. Steyer also has worked to support immigration groups resisting Trump’s nativist policies, and contributed to the Hillary Clinton campaign in 2016. Often rumored to be thinking of running for office in California, he always declined, but has encouraged speculation that he might run for President, and has appeared in Iowa and New Hampshire.

A fifth and final potential presidential candidate could be California’s Lieutenant Governor, Gavin Newsom, who’s almost certainly going to become the state’s new governor in November. Newsom probably won’t run, but he’s been a national figure since he became the first public official to marry gay couples (in 2004) while the mayor of San Francisco. It would seem highly unlikely that Newsom would immediately announce for President after having just won the governorship. But certainly, it can be imagined that he would be interested in a future candidacy in 2024 or later, as he could have a long career in California politics. He may seek to replace Senator Diane Feinstein, assuming she does not run for another term in six years when she would be 91 years of age.

I should mention that Michael Avenatti, the attorney and entrepreneur, also a California resident, is publicizing the likelihood that he will announce for President, based on his public fame from defending porn actress Stormy Daniels in court against Donald Trump. Avenatti has made certain that he is part of the news feed, and has demonstrated an ego almost as large as Trump, with whom he shares no government or military experience. The likelihood of him making much progress for the presidency is considered dead on arrival.

No matter how one looks at the political scene, it is clear that the Golden State, with nearly 40 million people, will play a major role in the politics of 2020 and into the future.