Trump Should Have a 70 Percent Chance of Winning in 2020

The recent Democratic takeover of the House is a clear sign to many that President Donald Trump is significantly weakened going into 2020. After all, the Democrats won the greatest number of seats since the 1974 midterms. But, reading too much into the midterm tea leaves is a dangerous practice. In truth, these midterms say very little about the next presidential election, and as attention shifts to 2020, Trump still remains the favorite.  

This prediction comes from our analysis of more than 500 elections, which indicates that a typical incumbent president with approval ratings at or above 40 percent should be the favorite to win re-election. With Trump’s current 44 percent approval rating, he should have about a 70 percent chance of winning in 2020.  Furthermore, even with an approval rating at 40 percent, Trump would still have better than a 50/50 chance of winning.