Ronald Brownstein: Bush Can Look To Past Second Terms For Inspiration
With the nomination of federal Judge Samuel A. Alito Jr. to the Supreme Court and the decision by Special Prosecutor Patrick J. Fitzgerald not to indict Karl Rove -- at least for now -- many of President Bush's supporters believe that last week marked the beginning of his political recovery.
It is possible that Bush has hit bottom in public support. Four national polls released last week put his approval rating below 40%. In an ABC/Washington Post poll, nearly half of all adults said they strongly disapproved of his performance, a level of impassioned discontent greater than Bill Clinton ever provoked in the survey.
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The more relevant question is whether Bush can climb out of this hole.
It's a question the other six presidents reelected since World War II confronted. Each suffered second-term blues. Some recovered sufficiently to reassert their influence and do no harm to their party's nominee in the next presidential election. Others never reversed their downward spiral and poisoned their party's prospects in the next campaign.
From the damage wrought by Hurricane Katrina to the ongoing bloodshed in Iraq, Bush faces a broader array of problems than most of these predecessors: It sometimes seems as if the White House is at the end of an assembly line whose product is grief.
But the experiences of these past presidents still illuminate the opportunities -- and risks -- he faces.
Bush's situation overlaps least with two of the modern two-term presidents.
Richard M. Nixon's second term was consumed by scandal, and he resigned in the face of impeachment for his role in the Watergate coverup. Despite Fitzgerald's indictment of I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby, Vice President Dick Cheney's former chief of staff, no one has yet suggested that the investigation could pose such personal risks for Bush.
Clinton's experience also doesn't seem very relevant. Like Nixon, Clinton was battered by scandal and impeached (though not convicted by the Senate). But his job approval ratings and support for his agenda remained high throughout his second term. As with many aspects of his political career, Clinton's second-term experience belongs to a category of its own.
The positive models for Bush are two Republican presidents: Dwight D. Eisenhower and Ronald Reagan tripped in their second term but recovered.
[Editor's Note: This is a very short excerpt from a much longer article. Please see the LA Times for more.]
It is possible that Bush has hit bottom in public support. Four national polls released last week put his approval rating below 40%. In an ABC/Washington Post poll, nearly half of all adults said they strongly disapproved of his performance, a level of impassioned discontent greater than Bill Clinton ever provoked in the survey.
...
The more relevant question is whether Bush can climb out of this hole.
It's a question the other six presidents reelected since World War II confronted. Each suffered second-term blues. Some recovered sufficiently to reassert their influence and do no harm to their party's nominee in the next presidential election. Others never reversed their downward spiral and poisoned their party's prospects in the next campaign.
From the damage wrought by Hurricane Katrina to the ongoing bloodshed in Iraq, Bush faces a broader array of problems than most of these predecessors: It sometimes seems as if the White House is at the end of an assembly line whose product is grief.
But the experiences of these past presidents still illuminate the opportunities -- and risks -- he faces.
Bush's situation overlaps least with two of the modern two-term presidents.
Richard M. Nixon's second term was consumed by scandal, and he resigned in the face of impeachment for his role in the Watergate coverup. Despite Fitzgerald's indictment of I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby, Vice President Dick Cheney's former chief of staff, no one has yet suggested that the investigation could pose such personal risks for Bush.
Clinton's experience also doesn't seem very relevant. Like Nixon, Clinton was battered by scandal and impeached (though not convicted by the Senate). But his job approval ratings and support for his agenda remained high throughout his second term. As with many aspects of his political career, Clinton's second-term experience belongs to a category of its own.
The positive models for Bush are two Republican presidents: Dwight D. Eisenhower and Ronald Reagan tripped in their second term but recovered.
[Editor's Note: This is a very short excerpt from a much longer article. Please see the LA Times for more.]