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Hector Tobar and Cecilia Sanchez: Mexico's Presidential Election Harkens Back To 1994 Race

Anyone interested in knowing how much uglier Mexico's presidential campaign could get need only travel to this city in the oil-patch state of Tabasco.

People here still argue about the battle royal that Roberto Madrazo and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador waged 11 years ago in the Tabasco gubernatorial race.

Now the two tabasquenos are front-runners in the three-way campaign to win the July 2006 presidential election, with ruling-party candidate Felipe Calderon third in most polls. The prospect of another Tabasco brawl makes some people here very nervous.

"The 1994 elections left the state divided," said Tomas Romero, a Villahermosa taxi driver. "Even now, there are families that are split over it. Those who support Madrazo don't talk to their relatives who support Lopez Obrador."

Madrazo won the 1994 election, a bitterly fought contest that hinted at the deeper transformations in Mexican politics. It was a race, like many in Mexico, tinged with accusations of vote-buying, demagoguery and backroom deals.

Even though he lost, Lopez Obrador was propelled onto the national stage, eventually becoming mayor of Mexico City.

And even though his victory was tainted by the vote-buying allegations, Madrazo's fight to hold on to the governorship helped him gain control of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, which lorded over Mexico for much of the 20th century and is still the largest political party in the country.

"What Tabasco has in them are two people who are very similar," said Oscar Montero, an attorney. "Both move the masses and are demagogues who will find it difficult to fulfill their promises. But the people want a caudillo [strongman], no matter what side he's on."