Walter Laqueur: Will science empower evildoers to destroy us?
[Mr. Laqueur was, from 1978 to 2001, co-chairman of the international research council at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.]
In 1824, at the age of 81, Thomas Jefferson wrote to his friend William Ludlow about the evident "progress of society." He noted that one could see in America itself a "march of civilization" observable elsewhere--that is, "the progress of man from the infancy of creation to the present day." Where such progress would stop, he wrote, "no one can say." But "barbarism has, in the meantime, been receding before the steady step of amelioration; and will in time, I trust, disappear from the earth."
Such sunny views were widely shared during the Enlightenment and in the early 19th century. True, the early phases of the Industrial Revolution, with its triumph of machines and its displacement of settled custom and belief, caused some thinkers, including Goethe, to ponder modernity's dark side. In "Annihilation From Within," Fred Charles Iklé tracks this current of troubled thought and adds his own insights and analysis, addressing in particular the threats now facing our civilization--indeed, any civilization.
As Mr. Iklé notes, technological progress has long brought about such astonishing improvements in the human condition that its obvious gains often crowd out a considered judgment of its potentially harmful effects. Even so, Jefferson's faith in mankind's steady amelioration has lost its force. For it became clear in the 20th century--and this is Mr. Iklé's major theme--that there has been a split between science and technology, on the one hand, and government, society and international affairs, on the other. "Science and the political order," he observes, "have been marching to different drummers."
The problem is that science has outrun the capacity of politics to manage, or of society to understand, the implications of technology's rapid advance. A chasm has opened up--a dangerous one, in Mr. Iklé's view. We live in a world in which biotechnology is near to acquiring the capacity to change the human species; and biological weapons threaten the survival of mankind itself. Scientists are working busily to create super intelligence systems that may well synthesize the computer and the human brain. Artificial Intelligence, as it is called, has been the object of science-fiction fantasy and philosophical rumination. In some form or other, Mr. Iklé claims, it may become a reality before long, with troublesome consequences. The U.S. seems to have achieved the most spectacular progress in this field, but other countries are deeply invested in it--above all, China....
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In 1824, at the age of 81, Thomas Jefferson wrote to his friend William Ludlow about the evident "progress of society." He noted that one could see in America itself a "march of civilization" observable elsewhere--that is, "the progress of man from the infancy of creation to the present day." Where such progress would stop, he wrote, "no one can say." But "barbarism has, in the meantime, been receding before the steady step of amelioration; and will in time, I trust, disappear from the earth."
Such sunny views were widely shared during the Enlightenment and in the early 19th century. True, the early phases of the Industrial Revolution, with its triumph of machines and its displacement of settled custom and belief, caused some thinkers, including Goethe, to ponder modernity's dark side. In "Annihilation From Within," Fred Charles Iklé tracks this current of troubled thought and adds his own insights and analysis, addressing in particular the threats now facing our civilization--indeed, any civilization.
As Mr. Iklé notes, technological progress has long brought about such astonishing improvements in the human condition that its obvious gains often crowd out a considered judgment of its potentially harmful effects. Even so, Jefferson's faith in mankind's steady amelioration has lost its force. For it became clear in the 20th century--and this is Mr. Iklé's major theme--that there has been a split between science and technology, on the one hand, and government, society and international affairs, on the other. "Science and the political order," he observes, "have been marching to different drummers."
The problem is that science has outrun the capacity of politics to manage, or of society to understand, the implications of technology's rapid advance. A chasm has opened up--a dangerous one, in Mr. Iklé's view. We live in a world in which biotechnology is near to acquiring the capacity to change the human species; and biological weapons threaten the survival of mankind itself. Scientists are working busily to create super intelligence systems that may well synthesize the computer and the human brain. Artificial Intelligence, as it is called, has been the object of science-fiction fantasy and philosophical rumination. In some form or other, Mr. Iklé claims, it may become a reality before long, with troublesome consequences. The U.S. seems to have achieved the most spectacular progress in this field, but other countries are deeply invested in it--above all, China....