Are We in Danger of Running Out of Oil?

In 1995 the American Petroleum Institute published Edward Porter's Are We Running Out of Oil? (with a fine bibliography appended). The world, including America, is indeed running out (to answer the question). This fact has been known for a long time, especially by petroleum geologists the world over. But, a renowned geophysicist, M. King Hubbert (1903-1989) of the United States, led the way in making such predictions (as long ago as 1956). By means of bell-shaped curves (which became famous as the Hubbert Curves) he plotted the rise, peak, and inevitable decline of both U. S. and world oil production. His forecast that American crude production would peak for the lower 48 states between 1965 and 1970 hit the mark dead center for the peak year came in 1970. For the world at large Hubbert was not far wrong either, if at all, for he gave 2000 as the peak year. Probably though the peak for world oil production will come in 2010 (but no later), as given by L. F. Ivanhoe,"Updated Hubbert Curves Analyze World Oil Supply," World Oil 217 (November 1996): 91-94.

For readers who may have doubts let me provide here a few petroleum production statistics. They illustrate to anyone's satisfaction (at least any sane person) the alarming rate at which oil has been produced (and, of course, has been consumed) worldwide, particularly during the second half of the twentieth century. As of 1900, the entire globe yielded 1.7 billion barrels of oil, 1 billion of which came from the U. S. But, look out! By 1956 the world had a cumulative production of 96 billion barrels, with 58 percent, or 55.2 billion barrels coming from U. S. alone. But now let me astound you. From 1957 through 1997 the world produced another 704 billion barrels of oil, which brought the cumulative global output up to 800 billion barrels. What does that mean? Exactly this--88 percent of all the oil ever produced in modern times, dating from the Drake well in 1859 near Titusville, Pennsylvania, has come from the earth in just 41 years (1957-1997)! Surely, no one in their right mind would expect such a phenomenon to continue for much longer.

And, they would be right. It can not! For, oil is both a nonrenewable and finite natural resource, which it took Nature (or God, if you prefer) 500 million years to create. The best estimate of petroleum geologists, who ought to know, gives 2050 as the year, when conventional oil (easily producible oil) will dwindle to almost nothing.

Now for a sobering thought, which I will put in the form of a question. What should the policy be of the United States with regard to oil and its future delivery worldwide? One's answer depends upon a careful reading of what follows. By 1948 the U. S. had become a net importer of oil. Even so, in 1952 America still produced 52 percent of the world's crude. The U. S. share of global oil production began to decline rapidly though through the last half of the twentieth century (by 1997 the U. S. produced only 10 percent of the world's total). No wonder then, in spite of offshore finds of oil in the Gulf of Mexico after 1953 and the prolific onshore find at Prudhoe Bay in Alaska by 1968, the U. S. was forced to rely more and more on imports, especially from countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), until by 1999 the U. S. had to import 49.6 percent of its crude.

This growing dependence on foreign oil is exacerbated by the following fact--by 2010 reliable sources estimate that at least 50 percent of the world's oil will likely come from the Middle East. As of 1988 five Arab countries (all members of OPEC) had proven reserves (oil known to exist, but not yet produced) totaling 569.2 billion barrels. Now, the estimate for proven reserves worldwide amounts to 922.1 billion barrels. One can readily see from the two figures that the five nations of Saudi Arabia (255.0 billion barrels of proven reserves); Iraq (99.0); Kuwait (96.0); Iran (63.0); and the United Arab Emirates (56.2) hold more than half the earth's known oil. With that fact in mind, along with the potential for terrorism to disrupt the flow of oil from Arab (Muslim) countries in the Middle East, there is a grave need to reduce America's reliance on oil for energy through conservation measures (enhanced oil recovery) and more energy-efficient technologies (such as the hydrogen-powered car), not to mention alternatives (which do exist in abundance).

What does all this mean? Exactly this--the world's peoples, including Americans, who have been increasingly dependent on oil, at least from the advent of the"motor fuel age" in 1910, had better, as never before, plan for a different energy future. That will entail a greater and greater recourse to alternatives to oil for our energy needs. The alternatives exist, particularly through resorts to such energy sources as solar, wind, and water power, along with biomass (the processing of plant life into fuel), and geothermal phenomena (harnessing energy from the interior of the earth with one example being that of hot springs). The question presents itself though--will the world's peoples act in time, especially through governmental action, to avert disaster?