Analogies in Action

In his address to Congress, President Bush wisely asked the American people for their patience"in what will be a long struggle." He also warned--again wisely--that this war against international terrorism would not resemble previous conflicts with Iraq and Kosovo. But left unsaid, in what was no doubt a deliberate omission, was any comparison to a war it might resemble--the war in Vietnam.

Even Bush's words eerily echoed those offered by another president a generation ago."We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail," he declared. Lyndon Johnson made a similar pledge in March 1965."We will not be defeated," he vowed."We will not grow tired." That month the first U.S. combat soldiers arrived in Vietnam.

Other similarities abound. In his speech, Bush promised to sever the financial network that supports Al Qaeda. Johnson likewise promised to sever the logistical network (the Ho Chi Minh Trail) that supplied the Vietcong. Bush also asked the American people to pray, purchase,"live your lives and hug your children." He made no mention of real sacrifices, such as higher taxes. Johnson similarly avoided the question of sacrifice. Not until 1968 would he authorize even a temporary tax surcharge.

Of course, the analogy is by no means perfect. For one, the end of the Cold War has dramatically altered the geo-political context--witness the possibility that Russia and China may support U.S. efforts to bring Osama bin Laden to justice. For another, terrorist cells that operate across national borders are not identical to guerrilla forces that use neutral countries as safe havens but ultimately depend upon a state sponsor--a comparison that may or may not work in our favor.

But the parallels remain numerous and troubling. In 1965, Johnson made an open-ended commitment to support Saigon without a clear means to achieve victory or an accurate measure to assess progress (as the misleading"body-count" figures would demonstrate). In 2001, Bush confronts a similar challenge--without, once again, an exit strategy. Like the war in Vietnam, the fight against international terrorism promises to be long and bitter, with no certainty of lasting success. Like Vietnam, it will also feature an unclear enemy, an uncertain objective, and an unpredictable outcome--all waged on unfamiliar terrain. And like Vietnam, the anti-terrorist campaign will involve unknown costs.

In the wake of the horrific attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, twin symbols of America's economic and military might, commentators and politicians repeatedly invoked the memory of Pearl Harbor. Repeating the famous words of President Franklin Roosevelt, they declared that September 11, 2001 was now, like December 7, 1941,"a date which will live in infamy." Once again, a fanatical enemy had"suddenly and deliberately" committed a blatant act of war against a peaceful nation.

But in 2001 the U.S. was already at war with terrorism--witness the attack on the U.S.S. Cole one year ago. Perhaps, then, the proper analogy to make is with the surprise assault on the U.S. Embassy in Saigon during the Tet Offensive. In January 1968, as part of a massive series of coordinated assaults across South Vietnam, a suicide squad of Vietcong sappers invaded the compound of the U.S. Embassy, the symbol of American power in the region. Dramatic footage of the event aired on national television, stunning the country which until then had believed official statements that the war was going well.

In the aftermath of Tet, the U.S. achieved a short-term tactical triumph over the Vietcong. But the long-term political damage was done. The credibility of government officials had eroded to the point where many Americans began to doubt whether the war in Vietnam was winnable and whether it was worth the cost.

The fight against international terrorism is critical to the future of the U.S. and the world. To wage a successful campaign, President Bush must maintain the resolve of the American people to pay the price in terms of dollars spent, lives lost, and liberties curtailed. To protect his political credibility, he must also dampen expectations of a conclusive victory at little cost in the near future. It is, to say the least, a challenging task. Avoiding painful parallels from the past will not make it any easier.