Anthony Selden: Blair biographer assesses his legacy
[Anthony Seldon is the author of Blair; his new book, Blair Unbound, is due to be published in July 2007.]
Within the next seven months, Tony Blair will have gone, and the landscape of British politics will change utterly. The daggers are being sharpened and the pens filled to tear into his record. Already a picture is emerging of a prime minister who had a strong first term, a disastrous second, and a flawed third while battling to secure his legacy.
This view will underscore the television retrospectives now in preparation. But Blair's defenders remain as unrepentant as ever. They showcase a record of achievement and argue that history will be kinder to him than contemporary judgments. Blair's four predecessors - Harold Wilson, Jim Callaghan, Margaret Thatcher and John Major - were all burnt out by the end. Blair by contrast is fighting fit, and believes he is more on top of his game than ever. In his mind, at least, the quest for the holy grail - leaving on a high point and at a moment of his own choosing - continues.
To the Brownites Blair remains a vacillating and weak figure, who squandered Labour's unique opportunity from 1997, and who repeatedly lied to their champion about when he would leave. While Blair took Britain down false paths of greater choice and diversity in public services, Brown's allies consider the government's real achievements - the economy and social policy - as the fruit of their own works. Blair might have been prime minister, but they aren't about to cede any credit to the team captain for successes on their part of the field. And so it goes on. The Brown-Blair wars have dominated British politics for 10 years. They will continue to dominate the debate for the next 10.
I believe that Blair's record looks far stronger now than if he had left in 2004, when I published my first biography. His search for a legacy is showing some signs of progress. His third general election victory in 2005, albeit with a narrower majority than in 1997 and 2001, elevates him to the super league of British prime ministers. Mrs Thatcher, alone in the 20th century, achieved three successive election victories, but she did not remodel her party as extensively as Blair has done. The ultimate endorsement lies in David Cameron's shameless aping of much of what Blair has done. Love him or loathe him, no one can deny that Blair has been a political colossus at the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st.
At home, Blair's distinctive choice and diversity agenda would have been far more advanced by now had it not taken him until 2001 to discover it. By the time his own agenda crystallised, much of the bonanza of extra state spending had already been allocated, with debatable gains in efficiency. Blair knows there is much still to prove, hence his fury at September's attempted coup, which has cut short his premiership. Academies are a particular concern. Last month he announced they would double in number; in time, they may be regarded as among his greatest achievements, but they have yet to gain Brown's unqualified support.
Blair's foreign policy record is even less secure. Successes came early - Kosovo, Sierra Leone and Operation Desert Fox (the 1998 bombing of Iraq) convinced him of the efficacy of military action. But since 9/11, when he was briefly the most assured political leader in the world, he has found success more elusive. Of his three great global campaigns, aid to Africa, action on climate change and progress on the Middle East peace process, limited progress has been possible in only the first two....
Read entire article at Guardian
Within the next seven months, Tony Blair will have gone, and the landscape of British politics will change utterly. The daggers are being sharpened and the pens filled to tear into his record. Already a picture is emerging of a prime minister who had a strong first term, a disastrous second, and a flawed third while battling to secure his legacy.
This view will underscore the television retrospectives now in preparation. But Blair's defenders remain as unrepentant as ever. They showcase a record of achievement and argue that history will be kinder to him than contemporary judgments. Blair's four predecessors - Harold Wilson, Jim Callaghan, Margaret Thatcher and John Major - were all burnt out by the end. Blair by contrast is fighting fit, and believes he is more on top of his game than ever. In his mind, at least, the quest for the holy grail - leaving on a high point and at a moment of his own choosing - continues.
To the Brownites Blair remains a vacillating and weak figure, who squandered Labour's unique opportunity from 1997, and who repeatedly lied to their champion about when he would leave. While Blair took Britain down false paths of greater choice and diversity in public services, Brown's allies consider the government's real achievements - the economy and social policy - as the fruit of their own works. Blair might have been prime minister, but they aren't about to cede any credit to the team captain for successes on their part of the field. And so it goes on. The Brown-Blair wars have dominated British politics for 10 years. They will continue to dominate the debate for the next 10.
I believe that Blair's record looks far stronger now than if he had left in 2004, when I published my first biography. His search for a legacy is showing some signs of progress. His third general election victory in 2005, albeit with a narrower majority than in 1997 and 2001, elevates him to the super league of British prime ministers. Mrs Thatcher, alone in the 20th century, achieved three successive election victories, but she did not remodel her party as extensively as Blair has done. The ultimate endorsement lies in David Cameron's shameless aping of much of what Blair has done. Love him or loathe him, no one can deny that Blair has been a political colossus at the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st.
At home, Blair's distinctive choice and diversity agenda would have been far more advanced by now had it not taken him until 2001 to discover it. By the time his own agenda crystallised, much of the bonanza of extra state spending had already been allocated, with debatable gains in efficiency. Blair knows there is much still to prove, hence his fury at September's attempted coup, which has cut short his premiership. Academies are a particular concern. Last month he announced they would double in number; in time, they may be regarded as among his greatest achievements, but they have yet to gain Brown's unqualified support.
Blair's foreign policy record is even less secure. Successes came early - Kosovo, Sierra Leone and Operation Desert Fox (the 1998 bombing of Iraq) convinced him of the efficacy of military action. But since 9/11, when he was briefly the most assured political leader in the world, he has found success more elusive. Of his three great global campaigns, aid to Africa, action on climate change and progress on the Middle East peace process, limited progress has been possible in only the first two....