William Kristol: Bush will be seen as a successful president
I SUPPOSE I'll merely expose myself to harmless ridicule if I make the following assertion: George W. Bush's presidency will probably be a successful one.
Let's step back from the unnecessary mistakes and the self-inflicted wounds that have characterised the Bush administration. Let's look at the broad forest rather than the often unlovely trees.
What do we see?
First, no second terrorist attack on US soil, not something we could have taken for granted. Second, a strong economy, also something that wasn't inevitable. And third, and most important, a war in Iraq that has been very difficult, but where -- despite some confusion engendered by an almost meaningless benchmark report last week -- we seem to be on course to a successful outcome.
But wait, wait, wait: what about Iraq? It's Iraq, stupid -- you (and 65 per cent of Americans) say -- that makes Bush an unsuccessful president. Not necessarily.
To be a successful president, Bush has to win in Iraq. Which I think we can. Indeed, I think we will.
In late 2006, I didn't think we would win, as Bush stuck with the failed Rumsfeld-Abizaid-Casey strategy of standing down as the Iraqis were able to stand up, based on the mistaken theory that if we had a small footprint in Iraq, we'd be more successful. With the new counterinsurgency strategy announced on January 10, backed up by the troop surge, I think the odds are finally better than 50-50 that we will prevail.
We are routing al-Qa'ida in Iraq, we are beginning to curb the Iranian-backed sectarian Shi'ite militias and we are increasingly able to protect more of the Iraqi population.
If we sustain the surge for a year and continue to train Iraqi troops effectively, we can probably begin to draw down in mid to late 2008.
The fact is that military progress on the ground in Iraq in the past few months has been greater than even surge proponents like me expected, and political progress is beginning to follow.
Iran is a problem and we will have to do more to curb Tehran's meddling, but we can. So if we keep our nerve here at home, we have a good shot at achieving a real, though messy, victory in Iraq.
Let's step back from the unnecessary mistakes and the self-inflicted wounds that have characterised the Bush administration. Let's look at the broad forest rather than the often unlovely trees.
What do we see?
First, no second terrorist attack on US soil, not something we could have taken for granted. Second, a strong economy, also something that wasn't inevitable. And third, and most important, a war in Iraq that has been very difficult, but where -- despite some confusion engendered by an almost meaningless benchmark report last week -- we seem to be on course to a successful outcome.
But wait, wait, wait: what about Iraq? It's Iraq, stupid -- you (and 65 per cent of Americans) say -- that makes Bush an unsuccessful president. Not necessarily.
To be a successful president, Bush has to win in Iraq. Which I think we can. Indeed, I think we will.
In late 2006, I didn't think we would win, as Bush stuck with the failed Rumsfeld-Abizaid-Casey strategy of standing down as the Iraqis were able to stand up, based on the mistaken theory that if we had a small footprint in Iraq, we'd be more successful. With the new counterinsurgency strategy announced on January 10, backed up by the troop surge, I think the odds are finally better than 50-50 that we will prevail.
We are routing al-Qa'ida in Iraq, we are beginning to curb the Iranian-backed sectarian Shi'ite militias and we are increasingly able to protect more of the Iraqi population.
If we sustain the surge for a year and continue to train Iraqi troops effectively, we can probably begin to draw down in mid to late 2008.
The fact is that military progress on the ground in Iraq in the past few months has been greater than even surge proponents like me expected, and political progress is beginning to follow.
Iran is a problem and we will have to do more to curb Tehran's meddling, but we can. So if we keep our nerve here at home, we have a good shot at achieving a real, though messy, victory in Iraq.