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Jonathan Marcus: Bush's Mid-East legacy

[Jonathan Marcus is BBC's diplomatic correspondent.]

Its outcome, quite apart from the chaos in Iraq itself, has been a fundamental shift in the geo-strategic balance in the Middle East.

Iran is resurgent. Iran's allies like Hezbollah and Hamas are the main beneficiaries of their patron's ascent. And pro-western Sunni Arab regimes are worried.

That at least is the conventional wisdom.

So with the end now in sight for the Bush administration, it seemed like a useful exercise to see how leading Israeli experts view Mr Bush's legacy in the region.

Perhaps surprisingly, they seemed far less pessimistic than many of their European and American counterparts.

Ehud Yaari, one of Israel's most respected regional commentators, sees a significant underlying shift for the better.

"I think what we have now in the Middle East is a tectonic movement of the basic plates of the region, moving quietly towards each other," he said.

And running through a catalogue of current problems, Mr Yaari chose to accentuate the positive.

"I see the possibility of some sort of a bargain - probably a partial bargain - between the major powers and Iran. We have already seen a deal over Lebanon between the Iranians, the Syrians, the Saudis and the West.

"I believe that we are going to see in the next few months a reconciliation of sorts between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority.

"I think that the trend in the region is towards some sort of new arrangements between the adversaries, not towards a confrontation," he concluded.

Increased stability

This positive view was endorsed by Shlomo Avineri, professor of political science at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem and a former director general of Israel's foreign ministry under the late Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin.

"Leaving Iran aside, the Middle East today is much more stable than it was when Mr Bush came into power," he said...
Read entire article at BBC