Assault On Poverty Would Secure Blair Place In History
Roy Hattersley, The Guardian (London), 12/06/04
Loyal to a fault, I persist in the belief that Tony Blair can climb up the league table, published last week, which placed him sixth in the pantheon of modern prime ministers. I am even prepared to offer him advice about how it can be done - even when his success is measured against the inadequate criteria used in the poll of historians and political scientists. They looked for leadership, judgment and courage, but forgot that those essential attributes of greatness are sometimes obscured or enhanced by another factor, luck.
Admittedly, it is not essential. When Clement Attlee moved into Downing Street, it was assumed that the transition from war to peace would be as painful as it had been in 1918. Avoiding the dole queues of Lloyd George's"land fit for heroes" was an extraordinary achievement in itself. But it is forgotten because Attlee did so much more. The health service. A modern system of social security. Indian independence. The self-effacing little man changed the course of history. He triumphed over adversity.
Blair has been fortune's favourite. John Smith died at the one moment in the 1992 parliament when Gordon Brown had lost his touch. The walkover election for the party leadership was followed by a general election victory against a discredited Conservative party and a despised Tory leader.
For seven years the only Labour prime minister to inherit a strong economy has faced an opposition that seems committed only to self-destruction, supported by the most supine backbenchers in the party's history.
Even so, Blair missed his first opportunity to make his mark on posterity. We know that he wants Britain to join the euro, though how many marks the academic pollsters gave him for that particular judgment remains secret.
Had he dared to hold a referendum immediately after his first election, he would have won it on the strength of his personal popularity. That would have increased his score for leadership and courage. But the opportunity has passed.
In his pursuit of peace in Northern Ireland, Blair has been daring, brave and doggedly determined - an important quality that the assorted academics overlook. He may succeed where even William Gladstone failed and settle forever the political future of that once distressful country.
Lucky that the Rev Ian Paisley has aged and mellowed? Certainly. But greatness often depends on seizing the moment. Winston Churchill did it in 1940 and changed himself from slightly ridiculous imperial zealot to hero of his age.
Iraq will not be Blair's historical salvation. Prime ministers' reputations only benefit from leadership in wars that are, or are seen to be, fights for survival. It is too late to pretend that deposing Saddam Hussein saved us from annihilation by weapons of mass destruction.
Blair will be remembered in 50 years' time for what he did on the home front. His government has done much of which he can be proud. But that is not a guarantee of greatness. In the words of Joseph Chamberlain, he has to make the political weather. Attlee did it. So did Margaret Thatcher. Blair has been content to glide along in her economic slipstream - privatising what she did not privatise and believing in the market with a faith far greater than hers.
There have been occasional gusts of Attlee. The minimum wage was beyond Labour's aspirations in 1945 and the high levels of public expenditure, like the assault on working poverty, is in the great traditions of that postwar government. But greatness is not to be found in what Blair, last week, called the middle ground.
Its location is determined by a technique known as triangulation. By taking up a position, more or less equidistant between rival policy poles, parties of the centre hope both to win elections and implement some progressive reforms."Outflanking" - a practice that confounds the Tories by imitating them - now complicates New Labour's geometry. But it is principles not pragmatism that point the way to immortality and win top marks in highly bogus league tables.
It is not too late. The place in history would be secure if, abandoning all caution, Blair committed himself and to a real assault on poverty - child poverty at home and third world poverty abroad.
He speaks of such things. But to make a lasting mark he has to spend more on both objectives and take the risk of making enemies by raising the necessary money from the rich. And time is running out. Unless the prime minister moves quickly, it will be Gordon Brown who, when he succeeds him, challenges for the top spot in the league.
Loyal to a fault, I persist in the belief that Tony Blair can climb up the league table, published last week, which placed him sixth in the pantheon of modern prime ministers. I am even prepared to offer him advice about how it can be done - even when his success is measured against the inadequate criteria used in the poll of historians and political scientists. They looked for leadership, judgment and courage, but forgot that those essential attributes of greatness are sometimes obscured or enhanced by another factor, luck.
Admittedly, it is not essential. When Clement Attlee moved into Downing Street, it was assumed that the transition from war to peace would be as painful as it had been in 1918. Avoiding the dole queues of Lloyd George's"land fit for heroes" was an extraordinary achievement in itself. But it is forgotten because Attlee did so much more. The health service. A modern system of social security. Indian independence. The self-effacing little man changed the course of history. He triumphed over adversity.
Blair has been fortune's favourite. John Smith died at the one moment in the 1992 parliament when Gordon Brown had lost his touch. The walkover election for the party leadership was followed by a general election victory against a discredited Conservative party and a despised Tory leader.
For seven years the only Labour prime minister to inherit a strong economy has faced an opposition that seems committed only to self-destruction, supported by the most supine backbenchers in the party's history.
Even so, Blair missed his first opportunity to make his mark on posterity. We know that he wants Britain to join the euro, though how many marks the academic pollsters gave him for that particular judgment remains secret.
Had he dared to hold a referendum immediately after his first election, he would have won it on the strength of his personal popularity. That would have increased his score for leadership and courage. But the opportunity has passed.
In his pursuit of peace in Northern Ireland, Blair has been daring, brave and doggedly determined - an important quality that the assorted academics overlook. He may succeed where even William Gladstone failed and settle forever the political future of that once distressful country.
Lucky that the Rev Ian Paisley has aged and mellowed? Certainly. But greatness often depends on seizing the moment. Winston Churchill did it in 1940 and changed himself from slightly ridiculous imperial zealot to hero of his age.
Iraq will not be Blair's historical salvation. Prime ministers' reputations only benefit from leadership in wars that are, or are seen to be, fights for survival. It is too late to pretend that deposing Saddam Hussein saved us from annihilation by weapons of mass destruction.
Blair will be remembered in 50 years' time for what he did on the home front. His government has done much of which he can be proud. But that is not a guarantee of greatness. In the words of Joseph Chamberlain, he has to make the political weather. Attlee did it. So did Margaret Thatcher. Blair has been content to glide along in her economic slipstream - privatising what she did not privatise and believing in the market with a faith far greater than hers.
There have been occasional gusts of Attlee. The minimum wage was beyond Labour's aspirations in 1945 and the high levels of public expenditure, like the assault on working poverty, is in the great traditions of that postwar government. But greatness is not to be found in what Blair, last week, called the middle ground.
Its location is determined by a technique known as triangulation. By taking up a position, more or less equidistant between rival policy poles, parties of the centre hope both to win elections and implement some progressive reforms."Outflanking" - a practice that confounds the Tories by imitating them - now complicates New Labour's geometry. But it is principles not pragmatism that point the way to immortality and win top marks in highly bogus league tables.
It is not too late. The place in history would be secure if, abandoning all caution, Blair committed himself and to a real assault on poverty - child poverty at home and third world poverty abroad.
He speaks of such things. But to make a lasting mark he has to spend more on both objectives and take the risk of making enemies by raising the necessary money from the rich. And time is running out. Unless the prime minister moves quickly, it will be Gordon Brown who, when he succeeds him, challenges for the top spot in the league.