Japan's Status, 60 Years After WW II
Shinji Fukukawa, The Daily Yomiuri (Tokyo), 1/19/05
The Tokyo Colloquium and the Yomiuri International Economic Society (YIES) will hold a series of forums this year, the Yomiuri International Forum 2005, under the theme"The 60 years after World War II and beyond--A strategy for the nation's survival." The first forum will be held next month to explore Japan's options for the future. This is the first installment of a series of contributions from members of the forum's planning and executive panel.
A civilization is destined for ruin when it loses the ability of self-determination, according to British historian Arnold Toynbee.
Sixty years after the end of World War II, the global institutional framework that has managed the postwar era and the Japanese society that has evolved during this period are being radically transformed. Now, Japan faces the need to determine its own national strategy.
When the Cold War ended, people expected that globalism would become the foundation of the new world order.
But in reality, a new movement is taking place.
First, the structure of confrontation is changing. Although most conflicts have been state against state, a new type of conflict emerged in the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States--terrorists against the international community.
We have not found a clear answer to the question of whether we can eradicate terrorism using only military force.
We also lack the experience to properly deal with the conflicts of cultural and religious values that have occurred in the process of globalization.
Second, we have to restructure the system of maintaining international order.
International organizations play important roles under the current collective security framework. However, taking Iraq as an example, each nation has its own position, something that complicates relations.
The European Union is seeking to develop stronger internal ties--transcending national boundaries--while more countries are signing free trade agreements in their regions.
By doing this, they are attempting to increase their influence.
Countries such as India and China, with their expanding populations and economies, are expected to shortly take leading positions in the world, replacing Japan and Western European nations, which have dwindling populations.
This may mean a change in the major players that sustain the world order, or at least the creation of a multipolar global power structure.
Similar unstable factors have been developing in the economic system. Globalization potentially could lead to serious deflation as it encourages former communist nations to join the market economy, while developing nations are intensifying competition over attracting foreign investment.
The United States' twin deficits are one example of the various types of imbalances in the world.
The information technology revolution accelerated growth due to rapid innovation, but it also widened fluctuations in the global business climate.
Greater economic disparities, fierce competition over energy and a deteriorating global environment have caused further problems for the human race.
In this new global framework, national power is measured by soft power, such as diplomatic, economic and cultural resources.
Therefore, Japan now has to foster people capable of observing and understanding the situation at home and abroad and who can change social values.
Japanese society has become adverse to change, with the vested interests clinging on after the postwar growth period and the burst of the bubble economy.
Politicians have to overcome this sentiment and reform national strategy. The speed at which these changes are implemented is crucial.
For example, Japan has the challenge of acting as a bridge between the United States and the rest of the world by using its diplomatic ability. Failure to do so will lead to a serious rift developing if U.S. unilateralism continues.
The world will closely watch how Japan corrects the current global disparities, including in currencies.
Japan's diplomatic ability also will be tested by whether the nation can improve its relationship with China, which is said to be politically awkward, but economically intimate, and whether it can join hands with East Asian nations through such channels as FTAs.
Domestically, the nation's dwindling population has to be addressed. No country in history has prospered in the face of a declining population.
The national coffers are also nearly empty. To overcome these difficulties, the government must adapt a radical population policy and take comprehensive measures to utilize senior citizens.
Japan also must promote economic structural reform through technological innovation and lifestyle changes to encourage people's self-motivation.
Concerning population policy, the nation's leaders have to come up with innovative ideas, such as giving highly favorable tax treatment to households with many children. Economically, one of the solutions might be the integration and development of the industrial and cultural sectors.
As the nation's new framework, we have to discuss constitutional reform based on a spirit of international cooperation, respect for humanity and social solidarity.
Japan used to be rich in human resources. People created new ideas by combining the accumulated wisdom at home and abroad, built trusting relationships with others based on sound ethical values, added value through diligent work and lived in coexistence with nature.
The nation must develop such human resources and create an intelligent and grand society as the top national strategy.
Fukukawa is an adviser to Dentsu Inc. and former administrative vice minister of the former International Trade and Industry Ministry, now the Economy, Trade and Industry Ministry.
The Tokyo Colloquium and the Yomiuri International Economic Society (YIES) will hold a series of forums this year, the Yomiuri International Forum 2005, under the theme"The 60 years after World War II and beyond--A strategy for the nation's survival." The first forum will be held next month to explore Japan's options for the future. This is the first installment of a series of contributions from members of the forum's planning and executive panel.
A civilization is destined for ruin when it loses the ability of self-determination, according to British historian Arnold Toynbee.
Sixty years after the end of World War II, the global institutional framework that has managed the postwar era and the Japanese society that has evolved during this period are being radically transformed. Now, Japan faces the need to determine its own national strategy.
When the Cold War ended, people expected that globalism would become the foundation of the new world order.
But in reality, a new movement is taking place.
First, the structure of confrontation is changing. Although most conflicts have been state against state, a new type of conflict emerged in the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States--terrorists against the international community.
We have not found a clear answer to the question of whether we can eradicate terrorism using only military force.
We also lack the experience to properly deal with the conflicts of cultural and religious values that have occurred in the process of globalization.
Second, we have to restructure the system of maintaining international order.
International organizations play important roles under the current collective security framework. However, taking Iraq as an example, each nation has its own position, something that complicates relations.
The European Union is seeking to develop stronger internal ties--transcending national boundaries--while more countries are signing free trade agreements in their regions.
By doing this, they are attempting to increase their influence.
Countries such as India and China, with their expanding populations and economies, are expected to shortly take leading positions in the world, replacing Japan and Western European nations, which have dwindling populations.
This may mean a change in the major players that sustain the world order, or at least the creation of a multipolar global power structure.
Similar unstable factors have been developing in the economic system. Globalization potentially could lead to serious deflation as it encourages former communist nations to join the market economy, while developing nations are intensifying competition over attracting foreign investment.
The United States' twin deficits are one example of the various types of imbalances in the world.
The information technology revolution accelerated growth due to rapid innovation, but it also widened fluctuations in the global business climate.
Greater economic disparities, fierce competition over energy and a deteriorating global environment have caused further problems for the human race.
In this new global framework, national power is measured by soft power, such as diplomatic, economic and cultural resources.
Therefore, Japan now has to foster people capable of observing and understanding the situation at home and abroad and who can change social values.
Japanese society has become adverse to change, with the vested interests clinging on after the postwar growth period and the burst of the bubble economy.
Politicians have to overcome this sentiment and reform national strategy. The speed at which these changes are implemented is crucial.
For example, Japan has the challenge of acting as a bridge between the United States and the rest of the world by using its diplomatic ability. Failure to do so will lead to a serious rift developing if U.S. unilateralism continues.
The world will closely watch how Japan corrects the current global disparities, including in currencies.
Japan's diplomatic ability also will be tested by whether the nation can improve its relationship with China, which is said to be politically awkward, but economically intimate, and whether it can join hands with East Asian nations through such channels as FTAs.
Domestically, the nation's dwindling population has to be addressed. No country in history has prospered in the face of a declining population.
The national coffers are also nearly empty. To overcome these difficulties, the government must adapt a radical population policy and take comprehensive measures to utilize senior citizens.
Japan also must promote economic structural reform through technological innovation and lifestyle changes to encourage people's self-motivation.
Concerning population policy, the nation's leaders have to come up with innovative ideas, such as giving highly favorable tax treatment to households with many children. Economically, one of the solutions might be the integration and development of the industrial and cultural sectors.
As the nation's new framework, we have to discuss constitutional reform based on a spirit of international cooperation, respect for humanity and social solidarity.
Japan used to be rich in human resources. People created new ideas by combining the accumulated wisdom at home and abroad, built trusting relationships with others based on sound ethical values, added value through diligent work and lived in coexistence with nature.
The nation must develop such human resources and create an intelligent and grand society as the top national strategy.
Fukukawa is an adviser to Dentsu Inc. and former administrative vice minister of the former International Trade and Industry Ministry, now the Economy, Trade and Industry Ministry.