Do War Presidents Do Better at the Polls?
But serving as president during wartime has in fact been a mixed blessing and certainly no guarantee of re-election . Lincoln and FDR, who led the nation through cataclysmic wars, were indeed re-elected, but not without difficulty. Presidents who waged more remote and less popular wars, such as Harry S. Truman and Lyndon B. Johnson, found incumbency a liability. Although polls suggest that Bush should feel good about his prospects in November, he shouldn't expect that wartime leadership will ensure his victory. On the contrary, his best hope may be convincing the public that he also knows how to talk about peace and problems at home.
The question for Bush is whether he'll be perceived as a Roosevelt or Lincoln, or as a Truman or Johnson. In 1944, when FDR sought his fourth term, the United States and the Allied powers seemed likely to prevail over Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan. Yet bloody combat continued across Europe and the Pacific, and peace remained a distant hope. More than 7 million Americans were under arms. The country was fully mobilized.
But the fact that the nation's and the world's fate hung in the balance didn't guarantee a Roosevelt cakewalk. The proposals FDR outlined in his 1944 State of the Union address got nowhere in a Republican-heavy Congress. Thomas E. Dewey, the GOP nominee, slammed the president as an incipient dictator and (in a foretaste of future Republican campaigns) a pawn of radicals.
It certainly helped FDR that the public approved of his wartime leadership—but probably more important was the robust prosperity that the country was finally enjoying. FDR pollster Hadley Cantril's surveys found that the burning issues in 1944 were domestic. Accordingly, FDR campaigned on an"economic bill of rights" that promised 60 million jobs, help for small businesses, and the construction of homes, hospitals, and highways. Although he won a fourth term comfortably, he garnered fewer electoral votes in 1944 than he had in 1932, 1936, or 1940.
Bush also might hope to create an aura like that of Abraham Lincoln, who is remembered today for holding the Union together during dark times. But even though Lincoln governed during the bloodiest war ever on American soil—the number of deaths at the Battle of Gettysburg alone dwarf those on Sept. 11—he didn't have an easy road to re-election or even to renomination.
Besides Lincoln and FDR, other wartime presidents who won re-election were James Madison, who won a second term during the middle of the War of 1812, and William McKinley, who remained popular in 1900 after the Spanish-American War of 1898."Wartime" presidents who won re-election on peace planks include Woodrow Wilson and Richard Nixon. When Wilson sought re-election in 1916, World War I had already begun in Europe, but the United States hadn't entered the fighting, and Wilson campaigned on a promise not to get involved. Nixon likewise won a second term in 1972 largely because Americans believed he was finally bringing an end to American involvement in Vietnam; a treaty was signed the next January. Like Truman and Johnson, James K. Polk did not profit electorally from military success. Despite the U.S. victory in the Mexican-American War, Polk did not run for re-election. And George H.W. Bush, most recently, lost his 1992 re-election bid despite the American victories in Panama in 1989 and the Gulf War in 1991.
This piece first ran in Slate and is reprinted with permission of the author. Click here to see a list of his other History Lesson columns in Slate.