Pity the Poor Second Term Presidents
tags: presidents,Obama
The commentariat of America's corporate mass media have just
about reached their verdict on Barack Obama's second term: F for failure. We
shouldn't be surprised. The day after Obama won re-election there was a wave of
punditry reminding us that no second-term president has ever achieved very
much. So little more than failure was ever expected from this second-term
president.
But as Leo Tolstoy might have said, successful first-term
presidencies all alike; every unsuccessful second-term presidency is unhappy in
its own way.
The headline of a recent Washington Post editorial spoke for
the emerging consensus: "America's global role deserves better support
from Obama." "For seven decades since the end of World War II, the
United States has shouldered the responsibility of global security
guarantor," the editorial began, summing up the premise of that consensus.
Now, the Post
lamented, the president is shirking America's responsibility, giving in to the
temptation to "lay down that burden," "focusing on the costs of
the U.S. global role," and thus offering us, instead of the bold
leadership our global role requires, only "an uncertain trumpet."
Those last words take us back to 1960, when General Maxwell
Taylor wrote a best-selling critique of Dwight Eisenhower's foreign policy,
calling it an excessively weak "uncertain trumpet" in the face of a
growing Communist menace -- for which Taylor was rewarded, by the new, more
liberal president John F. Kennedy, with the chairmanship of the Joint Chiefs of
Staff. Taylor used his position of power to lead America's troop much deeper
into the swamps of Vietnam.
Never mind that the American public remembers the lessons of
Vietnam -- and Iraq and Afghanistan. Never mind that, as the Post editorial
noted, "a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found that 47
percent of Americans want the United States to be 'less active' in world
affairs -- a 33 percentage-point increase since 2001." Never mind that
Obama tried to play the global commander-in-chief in Syria and had to back down in the face of the
public's wrath. The American people just don't understand what's good for them
and for the world, the centrist Post
lamented.
Now, as in 1960,
liberals are joining the chorus of criticism of a president who purportedly
won't stand up to the Russian menace. After he described his own foreign
policy this
way -- “You hit singles; you hit doubles. Every once in a while, we may be
able to hit a home run" -- the usually supportive New York Times called
it "a sadly pinched view of the powers of his office. ... It does
not feel as if he is exercising sufficient American leadership and power."
Times columnist
Maureen Dowd mocked
Obama in her typically punchy way: "A singles hitter doesn’t scare
anybody. It doesn’t feel like leadership. It doesn’t feel like you’re in
command of your world. ... We expect the president, especially one who ran as
Babe Ruth, to hit home runs." The real problem, Dowd concluded, speaking
for the consensus, is that "Barry" is "whiffing."
Either you command
the world or you strike out. Those seem to be the only alternatives the mass
media commentariat will allow (with a few notable
exceptions.)
Actually Eisenhower, the president the liberals attacked in
1960 for weakness, pretty much agreed with that dichotomous view of America's
role in the world. He tried his best to command the world and to make sure the
U.S. could go on commanding the world for decades to come. (That's why he
wouldn't spend as much money on the military as the Democrats wanted; he was in
it for what he called "the long haul.")
Yet just 14 months into his second term (Obama is now 15
months in) Ike was summing up his second term experience, in a private letter,
in self-pitying terms: "There has scarcely been a day when some seemingly insoluble
problem did not arrive on my desk.”
Eisenhower didn't see that his insoluble problems were
largely of his own making. During his first term he could have gone to Geneva,
forged a genuine rapprochement with the Soviets, and built a foundation for
jointly resolving many of the problems that plagued him throughout his second
term.
Instead he offered an "Open Skies" plan that was an
obvious ploy to give the U.S. further cold war advantage. The Soviets saw
through the ruse and rejected it (in part because they feared letting the world
see how pitifully inferior their nuclear war-fighting capabilities were).
Eisenhower never imagined the possibility of really
cooperating with the Soviets, and certainly not a joint U.S. - Russian space
venture. So instead he had to suffer the second-term humiliation of seeing the
Russians launch the first earth-orbiting satellite (Sputnik), and then the
further humiliation of having a U-2 spy plane shot down over Russia, because he
could never give up his goal of global control through global surveillance.
Eisenhower's experience is a good reminder of the maxim that
every unsuccessful second-term presidency is unhappy in its own way.
But he also reminds us that a two-term president is usually
remembered by history for what he accomplished in his first term, not what he
failed to do in his second term.
Consider the roster of presidents who were seen, during
their second-term, to be floundering and failing. It also includes Wilson, FDR,
Truman, and Reagan -- all now widely admired by historians for leaving a
powerful mark on the nation's history. Historians go on debating whether that
mark was positive, of course; that's what historians are supposed to do. But
there's general agreement that these, like Eisenhower, were strong presidents
whose first terms marked significant turning points. In the history books,
their perceived second-term failures are typically treated as less significant.
Wilson's failure to get the U.S. to join the League of
Nations may be an exception to that rule. But most historians see the rejection
of the League as a failure of the Senate, not the president, who often gets
high marks for sticking to his first-term vision of a world without war, a
world eternally safe for democracy. So Wilson probably does fit the general
rule that second-term distress is eclipsed in the history books when there is
reason to see first-term greatness.
Why, then, was there such a rush to condemn even the most
eminent 20th century presidents during their second term? Because all
of them, like Eisenhower, were failing to achieve goals they had set during
their first terms, largely due to their own mistakes.
Wilson ran up not only against a recalcitrant Senate but
against British and French leaders at Versailles whose aims he misread, and in
both cases he overestimated his power of rhetorical persuasion.
FDR's New Deal faltered because he cut government spending,
tried to pack the Supreme Court, and campaigned against Southern Democrats who
were blocking his legislative program.
Truman, after launching America's cold war, continued to
prosecute a war against communists that he could not win.
Reagan, after a first term filled with inspiring rhetoric of
renewing American virtue, got caught up in the Iran-Contra scandal and
responded with clumsy, unconvincing words of self-excuse.
Put all these criticisms of second-termers together, look at
them the opposite way around (as if they were photographic negatives) and they
paint a vivid picture of what we expect a president to be: wise, honest, virtuous,
politically masterful, and powerful enough to win every battle, at home and
abroad.
We want, not a human being with human failings, but a
fairy-tale hero of mythic stature who will embody the kind of perfection that
America's mythic traditions attribute to the nation as a whole. Or as Maureen
Dowd put it, we want every two-termer to spend eight full years being the Babe
Ruth of politics, hitting homer after homer -- and we want it, I would add, so
we can go on believing that America is, year after year, the Babe Ruth of
nations.
Eventually presidents' second-term failings fade from public
memory, while their first-term home runs are remembered, so we can go on
imagining that we've really had presidents who lived up to our cherished mythic
standard.
In fact none did. And there's no reason we should expect
Obama to, either.
However he is in a different category from all previous
two-termers in one crucial respect. He is being denounced, not because he has
failed to achieve foreign policy goals he set out during his first term, but
precisely because he is doing so well in achieving his goals.
He made it clear from the beginning that, when it came to relations among nation-states (non-state "terrorists" are a different story) he would not flex America's muscle to demonstrate overt global control. Instead he would follow the maxim of John Quincy Adams (nearly every historian's choice for our greatest Secretary of State): America "goes not abroad in search of monsters to destroy." Obama's great fault, his centrist and liberal critics insist, is that he sticking firmly to that maxim, which is widely scorned by today's foreign policy establishment, though it's once again quite popular among the people at large.
Ironically, in the current orgy of Obama-bashing, there is little mention of the one foreign policy goal he set in his first term that he may very well fail to fulfill due to his own mistake -- the Israel-Palestine agreement that seems to be eluding him. In the mass media there's barely a whisper of the obvious: those peace talks collapsed because Obama would not put enough pressure on the Israeli government to follow through on its promises and to stop new development in the West Bank.
Historians may eventually remember that as Obama's one true foreign policy failure. But if Obama follows the path of his predecessors, historians will turn that failure into a footnote, while lauding yet another president who achieved greatness in his first term. That's one way we keep the myth of America's greatness alive.