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A question (or two) that I'm not equipped to answer: Is it possible that conditions in Iraq might lead, over time, to an attempt at a genocidal solution to the problem of political and religious divisions? How might the Iraq of 2007 or 2008, with the United States gone, compare to pre-genocide Rwandan or Balkan society?
A precise and narrowly framed question, I know, but I still wonder if anyone has given serious consideration to the possibility.
I have not had the time to follow the logic or math of this analysis, but if nothing else it is quite instructive in breaking down some of the casualty figures normally only seen as conglomerated:
Which brings us right back around, full circle, to Chris's question, I think.
I've not seen, historically, any strong correlation between dictatorship and genocide. Some genocides happen under failed states, some under dictators, some from the invasion of outsiders. It's tribalism -- either in traditional or modernistic forms (or combinations of the two, which is really the worst) -- which engenders genocide.
Ralph E. Luker -
11/28/2005
Unfortunately, you can't simply count the numbers of people killed by anti-American forces. You have also to include the numbers of people killed by American and allied forces, as well. And, obviously, if after the American forces are withdrawn, the contending parties in Iraq are not satisfied to contain their grievances within a political process -- if civil warfare escalates -- there is the potential for genocidal warfare there that could make Saddam Hussein look like a humanitarian.
John H. Lederer -
11/28/2005
"Our toppling the dictator in Iraq has not ended the killing..."
Do you think that the present terrorist attacks in Iraq are the equivalent of Saddam's liquidation policies?
Ralph E. Luker -
11/28/2005
My reference to Yugoslavia obviously referred to Marshall Tito, not to Saddam Hussein. But, if you wish to change the subject, yes, of course, no one disputes that Saddam Hussein was a ruthless killer of large numbers of his people. Nonetheless, saying that doesn't really respond to Chris Bray's question. Our toppling the dictator in Iraq has not ended the killing and it seems likely to continue whether United States troops are there or not. Perhaps it could have, had there ever been sufficient troops levels there for a real occupancy and had they been sustained for a sufficiently long time. We'll never know that now because the Bush administration never made the troop commitment that might have been necessary. And now we appear to be about to draw down the troop levels before a new Iraqi government has the national army to prevent an on-going civil war in Iraq. Quite an accomplishment, wouldn't you say?
John H. Lederer -
11/27/2005
Sorry that got cut off...
Northern Watch was the later name of Operation Provide Comfort, aerial campaigns designed to prevent Saddam from resuming his liquidation campaigns against the Kurds. Many have termed these operations "genocide" as an estimated 300,000 Kurds were killed in the late 80's and over a thousand villages and towns obliterated. There are documented army orders in the Anfal campaign to seperate and kill every male Kurd between the ages of 15 and 70 and remove the remainder of the population.. -- Human Rights Watch's publication on the Anfal campaign has details.
John H. Lederer -
11/27/2005
"Northern Watch" was the air operation instituted to preven
Ralph E. Luker -
11/27/2005
Mr. Lederer, You haven't acknowledged yet that you got your own argument exactly backwards on "Our Constitutional Crisis." Have a look. Even you can see that.
I don't recall that Marshall Tito was ever accused of genocide. Ruthless, yes; genocide, no.
John H. Lederer -
11/27/2005
Gee, and I was under the impression that having a dictator led to genocide, or am I misinformed as to precisely what the Northern Watch air missions were all about?
Louis N Proyect -
11/25/2005
One of the best discussions of this problem can be found in the concluding chapter of his "Black Man's Burden". Davidson blames the arbitrary state formation determined largely by pre-existing colonial borderlines for much of the chaos and violence in Africa. He compares this to Yugoslavia, an area he knows very well from his military service in WWII. I scanned in a passage from Davidson's book which can be read at:
If ever we learned that the end of dictatorship could lead to chaos and genocide, it ought to have been in the consequences of Yugoslavia's collapse. Colin Powell told President Bush that when he said: "You break it, it's yours." Even in the former Yugoslavia, we ought to have learned that partition produced very mixed results. I think we have forewarning that partition in Iraq would certainly expand the conflict there beyond Iraq and draw other regional powers into it. Now, we can only hope that electoral processes can contain the contending interests of all the people of Iraq.
Jonathan Dresner -
11/25/2005
My first thought is not of the Balkans, though there's probably some merit in thinking about it, but of the India-Pakistan partition, which was accompanied with significant violence on both sides. Some of what happened definitely would qualify as "ethnic cleansing" by our current standards.
Another analogy which might bear consideration is the creation of Israel: if the Kurds were to declare an autonomous (or even federal) division -- well supported by the organized Kurdish militaries/militias -- which was opposed by other Iraqi groups (and there's good reason to believe that the Shiites would resist losing control over the northern oil fields, not to mention local Shiite populations) and Turkey...
